Social Security contributory pensions, including those for retirement, widowhood and permanent disability, are updated every January 1 with the average inflation from December to November, an account that only has one month left. With the October CPI at 4.9%, according to the National Institute of Statistics (INE), it will leave the 2027 increase practically tied to 3.5% or 3.6%, about 55 or 57 euros more per month for the average retirement pension.
“The leading indicator of the CPI places its annual variation at 4.9% in October, the same as that registered in September,” states the INE. Remember that this is an estimate, which the INE advances at the end of the month, since the final data for October will be published on November 15.
All contributory pensions are obliged to increase, since this is stated in article 58 of the General Social Security Law, which states that these will be revalued according to the CPI for the twelve months prior to December, and each decree fixes that percentage with a decimal. In this way, the increase in pensions for 2026 was 2.7%.
If we add the rates from December 2025 to October 2026 (2.9%, 2.3%, 2.3%, 3.4%, 3.2%, 3.2%, 3.2%, 3.6%, 4.3%, 4.9% and 4.9%), which the INE includes in the series of its September note and in the October preview, we get 38.2 points, that is, an average of 3.47% in eleven months. The rebound from August to October has boosted the figure, since until July no rate had exceeded 3.6%.
4.4% in November leaves the average at the limit of rounding
With a November CPI of between 3.3% and 4.3%, the average would be below 3.55% (at 3.54% with 4.3%) and the increase would be 3.5%. With a figure between 4.5% and 5.5%, the average would exceed 3.55% and the increase would be 3.6%. And with 4.4%, the average would be exactly 3.55%, a case for which neither the law nor previous decrees establish a rounding.
That 4.4% is the forecast that Funcas (Savings Banks Foundation) made for November in its report of October 14. So I expected 4.6% in October, three tenths less than what the INE has given.
Outside that range, the rise would drop to 3.4% if November fell to 3.1% or less (1.8 points below October) and would rise to 3.7% with 5.7% or more. The October final also counts. A tenth of a correction moves the average by less than a hundredth, but it is enough to move the border. With October at 4.8%, November’s 4.4% would give an increase of 3.5% and the exact case would become 4.5%; with 5.0%, 4.4% would give 3.6% and the exact case would be 4.3%.
The INE will publish the November preview on November 27, the last day of the electoral campaign, and the final one on December 15. This advance only allows us to calculate the increase approximately, as explained by Social Security last year, when the advance and the final one in November coincided at 3.0%.
The tenth at stake is worth 1.57 euros per month in the average retirement pension
For the average retirement pension, which in October was 1,577.6 euros per month according to the Ministry of Inclusion, Social Security and Migration, 3.5% means 55.22 euros more per month and 773.08 euros per year (in 14 payments), and 3.6%, 56.79 euros per month and 795.06 euros per year. The two exceed by more than 200 euros the 572 per year that Social Security calculated for 2026.
For every 1,000 euros of pension, the increase is 35 euros per month with 3.5% and 36 with 3.6%. The system’s average pension (1,376.1 euros in October, according to the ministry) would go from 48.16 to 49.54 euros per month. And the ceiling of pensions accrued in 2027 (it rises 0.115 points more than the CPI, according to the thirty-ninth transitional provision of the General Social Security Law) would be 3,481.05 euros with 3.5% and 3,484.41 with 3.6%.
For the rest of the pensions, the increase would look like this depending on the amount collected in 2026:
| Pension per month in 2026 | Increase with 3.5% | Increase with 3.6% |
|---|---|---|
| 1,000 euros | 35 euros per month (490 per year) | 36 euros per month (504 per year) |
| 1,100 euros | 38.50 euros per month (539 per year) | 39.60 euros per month (554.40 per year) |
| 1,200 euros | 42 euros per month (588 per year) | 43.20 euros per month (604.80 per year) |
| 1,300 euros | 45.50 euros per month (637 per year) | 46.80 euros per month (655.20 per year) |
| 1,400 euros | 49 euros per month (686 per year) | 50.40 euros per month (705.60 per year) |
| 1,500 euros | 52.50 euros per month (735 per year) | 54 euros per month (756 per year) |
| 1,600 euros | 56 euros per month (784 per year) | 57.60 euros per month (806.40 per year) |
| 1,700 euros | 59.50 euros per month (833 per year) | 61.20 euros per month (856.80 per year) |
| 1,800 euros | 63 euros per month (882 per year) | 64.80 euros per month (907.20 per year) |
| 1,900 euros | 66.50 euros per month (931 per year) | 68.40 euros per month (957.60 per year) |
| 2,000 euros | 70 euros per month (980 per year) | 72 euros per month (1,008 per year) |
| 2,500 euros | 87.50 euros per month (1,225 per year) | 90 euros per month (1,260 per year) |
| 3,000 euros | 105 euros per month (1,470 per year) | 108 euros per month (1,512 per year) |
| 3,359.60 euros (maximum 2026) | 117.59 euros per month (1,646.26 per year) | 120.95 euros per month (1,693.30 per year) |
They are amounts of contributory pensions in 14 payments and without a supplement to the minimum (which Social Security adds to those who do not reach the minimum pension), because the minimum pensions rise by another rule, above the CPI. The system’s average pension (1,376.1 euros in October, according to the ministry) would go from 48.16 to 49.54 euros per month. And the ceiling of new pensions that are due in 2027 (it rises 0.115 points more than the CPI, according to the thirty-ninth transitional provision of the General Social Security Law) would be 3,481.05 euros with 3.5% and 3,484.41 with 3.6%.
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Social Security increases the minimum pension for retirees who now have their spouse in charge, more than 320 euros per month in 2026 and more than 400 in 2027 according to the law, whenever they request it.
The tenth of November only moves pensions that rise with the CPI. The minimum retirement with a dependent spouse, which the law ties in 2027 (additional provision fifty-third) to the poverty threshold of a household of two adults, will be around 1,433 euros per month with either of the two figures, because the extra increase completes what is missing up to that threshold.