The April closing of the Euribor at 2.747% has once again made those with mortgages nervous, but above all those who expect a review of it this May. The economist Montse Cespedosa, a mortgage advisor at the head of a consulting team specialized in banking, has published a new video in which she details what offers are on the table, how the bank is reacting to the latest increase and why she considers it a mistake to now sign a secured fixed rate above 2.5%. “We have had a roller coaster month of April,” he begins, before going down into detail about the FEIN that his clients are signing these days, the binding forms with the conditions of the mortgage that the bank delivers before signing.
The advisor insists that the Euribor will fall again before the end of the year because the ECB maintains its deposit facility at 2% and rules out a new structural increase. “Don’t let anyone sign me a fixed mortgage above 2 and a half,” he warns. “The Euribor will decline again, if not this month or next, it will be in 6 months or a year,” he adds.
The trap, according to Cespedosa, is the cancellation penalty. In a mortgage of 200,000 euros with a 2% commission, that penalty goes to 4,000 euros and blocks any subsequent subrogation, that is, any transfer of the loan to another bank with better conditions when the rate cycle turns again.
Fixed mortgages below 2% for very specific profiles
Cespedosa refutes the mortgage break speech with operational data. “Today I received three FEINs at 1.85 at a fixed rate with payroll, home insurance and life insurance,” he says. We are talking about TIN, the nominal interest rate that the bank applies before adding the cost of insurance and commissions.
Without these links, the same profiles remain around 2.20% to 2.35%. The condition that the bank requires for the most competitive offers is narrow. Couple’s joint income from 4,000 euros, mortgage above 200,000 euros and an LTV of 80%, all at the same time. The LTV (loan to value) is the percentage of the price of the home that the bank finances, so 80% implies that the buyer contributes at least the remaining 20% plus taxes out of pocket.
After 90% financing, the advisor warns, the operation enters the risk zone and there is “a significant increase in mortgage denials.” The economist even names a specific entity, ING, that is giving 100% in fixed rates for homes with energy ratings A, B and C. And she points out the banks that capture real estate promotions and increase the differential just before issuing the binding offer. “When they are going to issue the FEIN, they have increased the differential by 0.20 and they have remained so wide.”
My First Home Plan and ICO guarantees, two unequal paths
The Community of Madrid has sent to public information the expansion of the My First Home program, which in its current version covers homes of up to 390,000 euros for those under 41 years of age with two years of mandatory stay.
The announcement by the regional government raises the maximum price to 425,000 euros and opens the door to financing 100% of the value for younger buyers and lower percentages in higher age groups, up to 50 years of age. Cespedosa receives it as good news for Madrid, although he remembers that in his daily practice they are the only guarantees that are working with several entities.
Faced with this lever, Cespedosa conveys a clear skepticism towards the ICO guarantees. The line is extended until December 31, 2027 by agreement of the Council of Ministers, but the advisor denounces that on the ground “no financial entity can adhere to it” in the real operation that she encounters when requesting financing for her clients.
Regarding the new State Housing Plan 2026-2030 endowed with 7,000 million, recently presented by the Ministry of Housing, the economist clarifies with her own data. It ensures that housing prices have risen 64% since 2019 while salaries, discounting accumulated inflation of 21.8% in that same period, barely rise 1% in real terms.
Mixed for 5 or 10 years instead of fixed armored
The clearest recommendation in the video points to the mixed mortgage. Cespedosa proposes valuing a mixed loan for 5 or 10 years with a fixed tranche between 1.50% and 1.70% as long as the contract does not include an amortization or cancellation fee. This configuration allows, after the fixed tranche, a subrogation to another bank with minimum cost when the Euribor stabilizes again below 2.2%. “Mortgages are not forever,” remember. The important thing, he insists, is not to contract a 25 or 30-year armored product when the rate cycle is rotating.
The advisor closes with a warning about brokers who falsify payrolls or appraisals to force the concession, in reference to the case of the real estate agent from Córdoba accused of fraud that she cites in her intervention. “When you have to shoehorn something in, it’s not there,” he says.