Donald Tusk publicly promised that in 2029 (the 25th anniversary of Poland’s membership in the European Union) the GDP per capita, calculated according to purchasing power parity, will be in our country higher than in Great Britain. The words of the Polish Prime Minister were quoted, among others, by such British dailies as “The Independent”, “Daily Express” and “Daily Telegraph”.
As we celebrate 20 years in the EU, a fierce debate is taking place in the UK over the World Bank’s forecast that per capita income will be higher in Poland than in the UK in 2025. And I promise you this: on the 25th anniversary, Poles will be wealthier than the British. It’s better to be in the EU!
— Donald Tusk (@donaldtusk) May 1, 2024
It won’t work in five years, but in ten we can be close
Enthusiasm, however, is being cooled by economist Prof. Marcin Piątkowski, who estimates that if current trends continue, the situation described by the Prime Minister may not occur until 2035.
Correction: it is possible in 2035, not in 2025👇 but it is true that we are living our true #gold age. More about how it happened and what awaits us next https://t.co/e2ygPjHAK1 https://t.co/2IhJ2DJecu pic.twitter.com/DpaW3yRI4H
— Marcin Piatkowski 🇪🇺 (@mmpiatkowski) May 1, 2024
The specter of the Polish economy overtaking the British economy has been a significant element of public debate in the kingdom for years. In 2022, Daily Telegraph journalist Sam Ashworth-Hayes predicted that it could happen in 2034.
On current growth rates, Poland is set to be richer than Britain in 12 years time. Between Westminster and Whitehall, Britain’s failure to grow can be explained in four words: it’s not allowed to.https://t.co/yZzFWwRtrc
— Sam Ashworth-Hayes (@SAshworthHayes) July 17, 2022
According to data from the UK Office for National Statistics, in mid-2021 there were almost 700,000 people of Polish nationality living in Great Britain, making this group the largest minority in the country.
Will the British be looking for work in… Warsaw?
Comparisons with Poland have become an important point in the narrative of the Labour Party, which is heading for its first victory in a dozen or so years in the parliamentary elections scheduled for the end of this year. Keir Starmer, the leader of the left-wing group, stated during one of his speeches that he does not feel comfortable with the forecasts that Poland will soon overtake Great Britain in GDP per capita. In his opinion, this situation may force Britons to seek work abroad, including in… Warsaw! At the same time, the politician tipped to be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom added that the responsibility for this situation falls on the Conservative Party, which has been ruling in London for 14 years, and which negotiated unfavourable Brexit terms.
In 2010, GDP per capita Great Britaincalculated according to purchasing power parity, was 77 percent larger than the Polish one. In 2022, the British advantage was only 27 percent, and the indicator reached $47,587 for Great Britain versus $37,707 for Poland.
According to data published by the International Monetary Fund, Poland may overtake the Czech Republic, Spain and Japan in this respect earlier (by 2029).
The World Bank forecast for Poland from three weeks ago calls for 3% GDP growth this year and 3.4% in 2025. Similar estimates from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development for the UK call for 0.4% in 2024 and 1% a year later.
When measuring gross domestic product per capita, the total value of goods and services produced in a country per capita is taken into account. When purchasing power parity is also taken into account, the prices of the same goods and services in the countries being compared are also taken into account.