Goldman Sachs once again places Spain at the forefront of European growth. In its latest report, the US investment bank calculates that the Spanish GDP will advance by 2.1% this year, compared to the 0.7% expected for the eurozone as a whole. That is, three times faster. The figure confirms a trend that already emerged in 2025, when Spain led the growth of the region.
Beyond the headline, what is relevant for the investor is in the diagnosis. According to Filippo Taddei, Goldman Sachs chief economist for southern Europe and author of the analysis, the Spanish economy shows a «structural resilience» that distinguishes it from its neighbors, even in a context of global energy shock.
From quantity to quality
The central argument of the report marks an important change of nuance. For years, Spanish growth was explained by volume: more tourists, more population, more employment. Now, Goldman Sachs is focusing on quality of that growth.
Employment in high value-added sectors – professional services, finance and information technology – has increased by more than 20% since 2019, approximately double that of France or Italy. For Taddei, this recomposition of the labor market, and not only its size, is what is behind the improvement in productivity: the recent Spanish performance would reflect a gradual improvement in the quality, and not only in the quantity, of labor demand.
The data accompany the story. The unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest level since 2008 and the employment rate is at historic highs. Immigration continues to be a key support for growth, although the report itself recognizes that this opening further strains an already tight housing market.
Fiscal credibility, the silent asset
Perhaps the most interesting point for anyone looking at the Spanish debt is the behavior of public accounts. Spain has responded forcefully to the escalation in oil and gas prices derived from the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, with a spending effort greater than that of Germany, France or Italy.
And yet that spending has not deteriorated its fiscal position. Goldman Sachs attributes much of that balance to a political decision: not to prioritize increasing defense spending. The result is that Spain is, of the four large EU economies, the only one expected to reduce its debt-to-GDP ratio in the next three years.
The bond market has taken note. Investors are not demanding a higher premium on Spanish debt despite this additional expense, a sign of confidence that contrasts with episodes not so distant.
The risks that the investor should not ignore
Taddei himself is in charge of qualifying the optimism. It focuses on the dependence on tourism, which represents 12.6% of GDP according to INE estimates. Their calculations suggest that each 10% drop in tourist arrivals by air could subtract around three tenths from the GDP. In a summer marked by geopolitical uncertainty, it is a factor to monitor closely.
Added to this exposure is real estate tension, which can become a brake—social and economic—if supply does not keep up with the increase in demand.
What it means for a portfolio
For the investor, the underlying message is one of normalization rather than euphoria. Spain today combines above-average growth, a labor market at maximum levels and fiscal discipline that the market rewards. It is a profile that sustains the attractiveness of Spanish assets—domestic equities, public debt and companies linked to value-added services—without justifying ignoring cyclical risks.
As always, macro photography does not replace the analysis of each portfolio or the horizon of each investor. But it is worth keeping in mind: when a house like Goldman Sachs talks about structural resilience, and not just a good year, it is describing a change that could last beyond 2026.
Source: Goldman Sachs Research report, “Why Spain’s Economy Is Growing Three Times Faster Than the Euro Area”, signed by Filippo Taddei.