I think I have made as six different versions of this market comment of the month of March, but during these days in April today it has been a tsunami of comings and coming with the news and against news. Remember that Liberation Day Mr. Trump was April 2. I do not remember in my professional life such a strong intensity depending on a single person, or only in the crisis of 2008, this was the result of events that, although they were very serious you could intuit a road map if you wanted to avoid a disaster. In this crisis with name and surname everything depends on a person, yesterday afternoon he had finished a version of this monthly report that I had to break in a thousand pieces after the extension of ninety days announced by Mr. Trump. Yes, I know that in this comment I have to talk about the first quarter, but so many things have happened in ten days that the transcendence of the first quarter, without being less, is very distant in time. Maybe this same comment stops being utility in a few days.
But although we are very far in memory, the first quarter has been characterized by a strong rise in Europe in front of the US, we have written widely on this topic in previous monthly cards, we see great news that Germany increases its debt roof, but a certain skepticism with the rest of the countries and the EU, the so -called “Exceptionality USA” It is based on more than public spending, entrepreneurial mentality, capital, pro -business regulation and the best universities in the world, in the short term this does not change although that Europe could take advantage of talent that makes it little by little to reduce the innovative distance, but today it is far away and would be a long -term process.
How far will Mr. Trump go in his negotiating strategy? I had never seen a crack Of markets that will go down in history and surname, that is perhaps the greatest difficulty of this crisis, which depends on a personal will. Much has been written of the causes of this position, with some we can agree and with others not, that China has taken advantage of for many years is true, but, after all, it was its companies that sought lower production costs were, therefore, a certain level of sounding hypocrisy. No one takes seriously that an iPhone can cost 4,000 euros or dollars, nor that Nike running shoes that are now worth in 220 euros store cost 500. Is the recently long -term tariff of ninety days a stop on the road or was already part of a prepared strategy? Be that as it may, the markets have been taken to the limit and in the deepest monetary markets (far from the colorful of the stock market) there have been some serious notices that the financial system was being in danger, under our opinion, someone of his team has given him the notice that things were beginning to break things that could have unleashed chain events and could lose control of the situation.
Once the worst possible scenario is deactivated, there is a damage that is already done and the uncertainty about tariffs will continue, although more calmly, but many investments are going to be awaiting what may happen, so the growth of the global GDP will be affected in the next quarters. The adjustment of markets that has been, in our view, reflects the new economic situation and its evolution will depend on events.
After all this situation in the first quarter and first days of April, the business results that are published in April and May will be analyzed with magnifying glass, especially with the comments of their CEO about the future, which I fear much are messages of great caution. The good news, great opportunity to build long -term wallets.
It is not the first financial crisis nor will it be the last, in 1994 Brother’s Type Storm Greenspan1998 Asian tigers2000 la Bubble Point Com; 2008 Great Financial Crisis; 2012 Debt crisis; 2015 Yuan devaluation; 2018 Trump show test; 2020 Covid; 2022 Invasion of Ukraine and Inflation Explosion; 2025 The Trump show… all of different intensities and lengths, but with a common denominator, the feeling of investors that is the end of the system. Do you remember the recast of capitalism of Sarkozy In 2008?
Recall the crises of 2020 and 2022 (for being the closest in time), keeping calm has always been the best recipe, the nerves make that there are always investors who undo their portfolios in the worst moments and the best days of the recoveries are lost, statistically it is a fact that the strategy of continuing to be invested is always in the long term the most successful.