Latest Survey of Market Expectations (REM) of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) projects an official dollar at 1,500 pesos and monthly inflation below 2% in December 2025. The consulting firms surveyed anticipate that the stability of the exchange rate will be maintained during the first months of 2026, with an average price of 1,525 pesos in January and 1,582 in April, according to the median of the survey.
Analysts expect that the exchange band scheme, established by the Government of Javier Milei, will remain in force at least until 2027. The upper limit of the band is currently located at 1,499.50 pesos, with a monthly adjustment of 1%. Milei reaffirmed in an interview with the Financial Times that does not foresee changes in the scheme, ensuring that his administration “will maintain the program” despite criticism about the appreciation of the peso.
A CPI of 2% until the end of the year and an expansion of GDP
In inflation matters, the market consensus anticipates that the consumer price index (CPI) will remain around 2% monthly until the end of the year and will gradually decrease during 2026: 1.8% in January, 1.7% in February and 1.6% in April. With this, the annual cumulative figure for 2025 would be around 29.6%, reflecting a downward trend compared to previous years.
The report also projects a GDP expansion of 3.9% in 2025, after a slight contraction of 0.5% in the third quarter of the year. By 2026, growth of 1% is expected in the same year-on-year period. The unemployment rate would be 7.2% in the last quarter of 2025, while foreign trade would close with a trade surplus of 8,287 million dollars. At the fiscal level, the Government plans to achieve a primary surplus of 13.2 trillion pesos.
The projected stability of the dollar and the slowdown in inflation constitute, according to analysts, signs of consolidation of the Executive’s economic program, although they warn that the evolution will depend on the fulfillment of fiscal goals and the continuity of the band control scheme.