The Spanish risk premium, the differential between the national bonus to ten years and the referral of reference, has continued its bassist path until closing in the 53.40 basic points, delving into minimal not seen since the end of 2009. The profitability of the bonus to ten years has completed the day at 3,232%, which reflects the growing confidence of the markets in the solvency of the Spanish economy more favorable conditions than France.
This good behavior of the Spanish sovereign debt occurs in a positive news context. Last week, the Moody’s and Fitch rating agencies raised the solvency note of Spain to ‘A3’ and ‘A’, respectively. These decisions followed the one that had already taken two weeks before S&P Global Ratings, which improved the rating from the country from ‘a’ a ‘a+’. These upward reviews are a boost for the perception of international investors.
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The optimism of the markets finds its foundation, in addition, in the vigor of the economy. The growth forecasts published by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predict an expansion of the Spanish Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 2.6% by 2025, more than double the average of the Eurozone (1.2%), and of 2% by 2026, a figure that will also double the rhythm planned for the set of the single currency.
To the improvement of the perception of Spain, the evolution of the German debt itself joins, which serves as a reference to measure the risk of the rest of the countries. The profitability of bund German was this Friday at 2,698%, but it has exceeded 2.8% at some times of the year. This increase responds, in part, to the infrastructure spending plans and defense of the government of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, which, by raising the interest of his bonus, mechanically contributes to reducing the differential with the Spanish.
The situation in Spain contrasts significantly with that of other great European partners. Political instability in France and market doubts about the sustainability of their public accounts have raised the interest of their debt to ten years up to 3.508%, firing their risk premium to 81 points. In this way, the Spanish treasure is financed almost 28 points cheaper than its French counterpart. Italy, on the other hand, presented a return to the gala, of 3,511%. Even Greece, with an interest of 3,362%, is financed at a higher cost than Spain.
This photograph of debt markets is a paradigm shift regarding the situation lived during the financial crisis of the past decade, when Spain, along with other countries in southern Europe, suffered the distrust of investors and saw how its risk premium was fired above 600 points. The remarkable reduction of current financing costs is an important relief for public coffers, reducing the interest invoice of a high public debt and consolidating the position of the Spanish economy in the Eurozone.