The world economy is expected to slow down 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% in 2025 and 2026, with an increasingly difficult global panorama. This follows from the last report of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), published on Tuesday. Among the main risks for growth, the increase in commercial barriers, the hardening of financial conditions, the weakening of the confidence of companies and consumers and the increase in political uncertainty are cited.
The US economy is expected to slow down especially accused, moving from a GDP growth of 2.8% in 2024 to 1.6% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026. “This reflects the substantial increase in the effective tariff rate on imports and reprisals of some commercial partners,” said the OECD, before adding that “the high uncertainty of economic policy Significant deceleration of net immigration and a considerable reduction of the federal workforce ”were also factors that contributed. These figures are based on the assumption that tariff types are maintained in mid -May and suppose a downward review compared to the previous March projections, 2.2% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026.
Canada and Mexico will also experience a slowdown: in the first case, GDP growth is expected to fall from 1.5% to 1% in 2025, and in the second, from 1.5% to 0.4%. It is expected that China, to which some of the highest American tariffs were applied, which since then have been temporarily reduced, see its growth of 5% in 2024 to 4.7% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026. On the contrary, India is expected with planned growth of 4.7% in 2025 and 4.8% in 2026.
Regarding the annual general inflation, the OECD group is expected to reach 4.2% in 2025, compared to 3.7% previously calculated. Of the G20 countries, Argentina, Turkey and Russia are expected to register the highest annual inflation in 2025, with 36.6%, 31.4% and 9.7%, respectively. Although it is still high, this figure is an important improvement for both Argentina and Turkey, which have dropped from 219.9% and 58.5% in 2024.