The Council of Ministers approved this Tuesday the update of the macroeconomic table, which contemplates an upward revision of two tenths, to 2.9%, of the growth forecast for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2025. The estimate for 2026 remains at 2.2%, while for the years 2027 and 2028, the Executive foresees a growth of 2.1% in each case.
The Minister of Economy, Commerce and Business, Carlos Body, has highlighted that, “despite the complex context, the uncertain international context and a situation of deceleration of our main partners within the European Union, Spain maintains dynamic and resilient growth, thanks also to a growth model that is based, above all, on its balanced, as well as responsible, character.”
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The revisions coincide with international forecasts
This upward revision of the growth forecast for this year is in line with the projections of the main analysts, both national and international, according to Body. In this sense, the European Commission yesterday updated its forecasts for 2025, also up to 2.9%, just as the IMF did a few weeks ago. “Even some analysts are above, such as AIReF, with 3% for this year,” Corpo added.
“This is very important because it means that the Spanish economy will maintain this capacity for sustained growth above 2%, therefore bringing our potential growth closer to a figure that was an aspiration for many decades, to that 2%,” he stated.
Incorporation of inequality indicators
In the same session, the Council of Ministers also approved a series of methodological changes in the macroeconomic table, which from now on will be called the “economic table”. Three microeconomic indicators are introduced aimed at measuring inequality and poverty of the population.
The Gini index, which measures inequality in income distribution, is incorporated into the analysis to prepare the economic table; an indicator that represents the difference between the income of those who are between the richest 20% and the least rich or poorest 20%; and the risk of poverty rate, which represents the number of people who are below 60% of the median income, Corpo explained.
The objective of this methodological reform is that all these macroeconomic growth figures are translated “into the daily lives of households” and improvements are achieved in the reduction of inequality and poverty, according to the minister.
Employment and unemployment forecasts
In terms of employment, the economic picture shows an increase in employment of 2.8% for this year, five tenths above the rate registered in 2024; 2.1% for 2026 and 1.9% for both 2027 and 2028.
Regarding unemployment, the Government foresees an unemployment rate that will drop to 10.5% this year, eight tenths below the 2024 record; It will fall to 9.9% in 2026, 9.5% in 2027 and 9% in 2028.