The beginning of the year was not the best for the accommodation industry, but entrepreneurs are rather optimistic about the upcoming season. – In March, hotels recorded results at the level of February and they are still weaker compared to the previous year – according to the latest monthly survey of the Polish Hotel Industry Chamber of Commerce on the situation in the industry. Hoteliers assess the Easter period as successful, and May Day is expected to be equally optimistic. Forecasts are a dozen or so percentage points better than in the same period a year ago, which indicates a slow but nevertheless improvement in extending the booking window.
The number of tourists in winter decreased, and those who did travel more often headed to the seaside.
Although it seemed over the last two years that the accommodation industry was recovering from the very weak turn of 2020/2021 caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, January this year showed that there may still be a long way to go before the crisis is completely over. Despite the winter break, the beginning of the year for accommodation providers was weaker not only than December 2023, but also since January last year. Data collected by IGHP show that as many as 1/3 of accommodation facilities could count on occupancy of no more than 30%. Occupancy above 70% was recorded in only 8% of facilities. Entrepreneurs asked by the Chamber also noticed that tourists are less willing to book accommodation in advance. In January, only 14% of facilities had more than 50% of reservations for February. As we read in the summary of the survey, only 36% of tourist facilities were more than half full during the holidays.
Data for the entire country are average values, when we look at individual regions, we can see that they differ greatly from each other. Instead of winter hikes in the mountains, Poles more often chose walks on the beach. – This was the best start of the year for West Pomeranian tourism since 2019. Hotel occupancy is estimated at about 70 percent – Hanna Mojsiuk, president of the Northern Chamber of Commerce in Szczecin, told the portal turysci.pl. An increasing group of tourists are primarily interested in resorts offering something more than accommodation, e.g. SPA or animations for children.
We managed to survive the pandemic, but inflation may be worse
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on the financial condition of companies in many sectors. The number of businesses with financial problems in the accommodation industry has increased, but in terms of arrears, it was not too bad. Major restrictions on conducting business were compensated for by the aid shields introduced in November 2020. The introduction of the Polish Tourist Voucher (PBT) program in August 2020 also had a positive impact on the industry. During its validity, 3.7 million vouchers were used. Thanks to these actions, despite the difficulties caused by the pandemic, hoteliers managed to reduce their financial problems. According to data from the BIG InfoMonitor Debtor Register and the BIK credit information database, a decrease in the total value of overdue liabilities, both invoices and loans, was recorded during this period. In February 2022, they amounted to PLN 1,019 million – over PLN 53 million less than in February 2020, i.e. just before the pandemic.
The situation soon changed, however. The restrictions on hotel operations ceased, but state support ended, inflation accelerated, and a war broke out across the eastern border. Consumers and companies became more cautious in spending, and the industry’s arrears grew again. The situation eventually stabilized, and finally, the hoteliers’ overdue liabilities registered in February 2024 amounted to PLN 960 million, almost PLN 20 million less than a year earlier.
— Rising inflation has forced many Poles to review their financial capabilities. At the same time, 40% of us, in the face of the ongoing recession, are declaring that they will save money, and 20% are talking about the need to build a financial cushion for difficult times. On the other hand, it is clear that after the last few years, Poles have had enough of restrictions and want to return to normality, i.e. to travel, for example. The real increase in wages may be conducive to them. In March, the average salary increased to a record amount of PLN 8,408.8, which means a y/y increase of 12% nominally, i.e. with inflation at 2%, real wages increased by about 10% — notes Prof. Waldemar Rogowski, analyst at BIG InfoMonitor.
Hoteliers from the Łódź province are the most indebted
The largest outstanding debt, nearly PLN 237 million, belongs to entrepreneurs from the Łódź province. The same region, along with Mazovia, leads in the amount of liabilities per unreliable debtor. When we look at the number of facilities with unpaid arrears, the clear leader is Mazovia, where 366 accommodation companies are indebted. Interestingly, the share of entrepreneurs with overdue debt in regions that are strongly associated with tourism is relatively small: 1.4% in Pomerania and West Pomerania, 2.2% in Małopolska and 3.2% in Podkarpacie. The lowest debt was recorded for the following provinces: Lubuskie, Opole, Kuyavian-Pomeranian and Świętokrzyskie.
There were fewer tourists, but the situation is improving
According to data from the Central Statistical Office, 36.2 million tourists used hotel services in Poland in 2023, and were provided with 92.8 million overnight stays, which was an increase of 5.8% and 3.2%, respectively, compared to 2022. This was also significantly more than in 2021, when there were only 22.2 million tourists, and in the weakest year, mainly due to the lockdown, in 2020, when accommodation facilities accommodated only 17.9 million people.
When we compare the data for January 2024 with the same period in previous years, we can see that the situation is stabilizing. The Central Statistical Office reports that in the first month of this year, 1.86 million tourists used hotel services, which is only slightly less than a year ago. The data also looks good when it comes to current reservations. 41% of facilities declare occupancy in April at a level of 30-50%. More than half of the places are booked in 35% of hotels and guesthouses.
– The significant improvement in forecasts is the result of the promising long May weekend, which, due to this year’s calendar, may start for some guests as early as April 26 – we read in the IGHP report.
Source: BIG InfoMonitor