In 2026, with markets marked by inflation and volatility, Ramón Alfonso, managing partner of NORZ Patrimonia, analyzes the great dilemma between profitability and risk and how investors should face it in the new financial cycle.

In an environment where rates are no longer going back to 0% and inflation is sticky, traditional 60/40 portfolios have suffered greatly. Does advice based on standard risk profiles still make sense or has the time come to manage for real return objectives, whatever the cost in terms of volatility?

The 60/40 walletsmade up of 60% fixed income and 40% variable income, suffered falls in the month of March. However, by mid-April, most of these portfolios have recovered virtually all of the decline, resulting in a round trip.

When asked if it makes sense to continue thinking about risk-adjusted profiles, the answer is affirmative. For the majority of investors, the most important thing is to know the type of risk and the expected return to which they will be subjected. Few investors demand purely numerical return objectives, such as seeking a return that exceeds inflation plus 3%. Those who request demanding results must be willing to assume the volatility along the way, since obtaining implicit returns of 8% to 10% requires investing in assets with greater potential and, therefore, greater risk.

In conclusion, The usual 60/40 profiles are still valid and I do not perceive a demand for change regarding them. Despite recent events such as geopolitical conflicts, maintaining the initial objective remains the most profitable strategy.

As an independent firm, you boast of choosing the best on the market. But how many times do you find that the “star” funds of the large international managers are just white brands that do not beat their index? Right now, what asset class is it most difficult for you to find under quality and reasonable price criteria?

To select funds correctly It is essential to have a dashboard. You should look for funds that have a high sharpe ratio and a high sortino ratio, which indicates a high return per unit of risk. Furthermore, it is key to look for a high alpha and analyze the Tracking error: it should be low if the fund is indexed, or high if it is an author fund that seeks to stand out from the rest.

The simple name of a recognized manager or bank does not guarantee that the fund is the star option. When trading funds are passed through screening systems, they are often found to be less than excellent and may not justify the management fee.

He real work consists of decide what type of asset or characteristic you want to invest in, select the funds of that theme and classify them objectively. By carrying out this process systematically, a ranking is obtained by quartiles that considers a combination of absolute profitability, risk-adjusted profitability and degree of indexation.

NORZ has been active in seeking diversification beyond stocks and bonds. However, we are seeing a flood of private equity products for the retail client. Are we not overweighting the lack of liquidity in portfolios that are not prepared for it? Where do you set the illiquidity limit for a medium-sized asset?

He Private Equity It has a positive and a negative part.

The advantage the thing is, If selected appropriately, it should provide an attractive return. The main disadvantage is lack of liquiditysince it commits the investor to an average investment life of between seven and ten years without the possibility of withdrawing the capital. Since it lacks liquidity, constant information and exit options, it must clearly compensate financially.

A Returns of less than 20% per year in Private Equity are very poor. For this reason, the prudent limit for financial assets trapped without liquidity should be between a limit of 5% and 10% of the total.

It’s 2026 and AI is already filtering portfolios and selecting stocks with astonishing speed. Where in the NORZ investment process do you still fully trust human judgment and where have you already given up on pure data? Does visiting a fund manager in London or New York still add value or is it financial romanticism?

Nowadays, it is common that when sending a portfolio proposal, it is analyzed through a artificial intelligence which returns a very well written report. However, If AI is used without providing specific criteria and only asks for a general assessment, the resulting expectations are usually not excellent.

Is fundamental that there is a human judgment about why certain assets are added or removed. Artificial intelligence is a tool that helps enormously in valuation, but requires clear parameters to be introduced.

He higher value is obtained by combine manager knowledge to ask the right questions and the use of the machine to apply optimization algorithms, efficient frontiers and valuation models.

High net worth individuals are concerned, above all, with the security of their capital in the face of regulatory and tax changes. Are you actively recommending the geographical diversification of depositories outside of Spain or do you think that the fear of the national investor is exaggerated compared to global market risks?

There are two levels Regarding investment outside Spain:

1. The first level is to use a foreign depository simply to access a global portfolio and buy stocks or bonds in other countries, which is more than enough to achieve good diversification.
2. The second level arises from fear of State instability or the application of enormous tax rates. Currently, I do not perceive that to be the situation, so there is less reason to hastily move assets out of Spanish territory out of panic.

However, for those investors with a large local real estate asset who wish to reduce their exposure in Spain and diversify into other markets, Taking this measure is totally appropriate. The legislation allows you to invest abroad freely, as long as taxes are correctly declared in the country.

In summary, I would not be thinking of actively recommending leaving Spain because this is sinking, but I would end up saying “I believe that there is enough freedom to invest internationally and continue making the deposit in the Spanish will and paying taxes in Spain.” And perhaps where I would see more justification would be in diversifying large real estate assets that have access outside the Spanish real estate market, especially due to the law that was approved for large holders and that would make, perhaps in some cases, real estate investment in Spain less attractive.