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The global scenario remains dominated by geopolitical and economic uncertainty, and in the center of that tension is, once again, the US tariff policy. With a still solid economy, Donald Trump’s commercial strategy once again concerns concern among experts, especially for their potential to alter supply chains and stress structural inflation. In a volatile environment and with multiple open fronts – from geoeconomic fragmentation until the evolution of monetary policy – we analyze the implications for variable income, fixed income and future investment strategies.
If there is an issue that will continue to address the bags in the current environment, it is Trump’s tariff policy. While it is true that, as is being seen with the last actions, Trump’s policy has a clear negotiating intention, the truth is that the volatility and uncertainty that continues to weigh on the bags will not be attenuated until the commercial environment is more clear. And, in fact, Between representatives of managers and financial entities there is some fear of a collapse in supply chains if quick agreements are not reachedwhich could generate a shock similar to that lived during the pandemic.
Christian Torres, Partner, Cib & Sustainability Rep Filventis He believes that the world is entering a new stage of geoeconomic realignment, marked by greater tension between blocks. “If this process was going to happen within 10 or 15 years, it has been advanced. The world is being divided into two great spheres of influence: the American and China. And Europe must decide where to position yourself, ”he said. According to its analysis, this fragmentation will have direct consequences on commercial flows, supply chains and structural inflation.
In the macro plane, Consensus does not expect recession in the United States But a slowdown in an environment in which the American economy continues to show strength, with a labor market that remains solid and business benefits that, today, do not reflect deterioration. Everything knowing that if the growth weakens, the Federal Reserve could begin to cut types in the second part of the year although inflation, which still does not completely converge to the desired levels, remains a brake for an immediate decrease in types.
Xavier Sánchez, Private Banking Director of Singular Bank He acknowledges that in this macro context “recent falls have been more an emotional reaction of the market than a reflection of a structural deterioration. In fact, for us, they have meant a tactical opportunity to take positions”
The American bag is still seen with good eyes. The great technological (“the magnificent seven”) continue to generate interest in their fundamental solidsalthough a partial rotation is observed towards more defensive sectors such as health or infrastructure.
And Europe? Although more and more managers recognize an attempt to reaction at the political and economic level, Many doubt their ability to achieve US dynamism and leadership. or China without a deep change in mentality, investment in R&D, education and financial integration. Although the valuations are more attractive, there are structural doubts about their ability to compete globally. The German Rearme Plan was interpreted as an attempt to stimulate that it could benefit from the whole of the Eurozone, although the problems of political leadership and coordination persist.
In this sense, experts believe that the old continent could benefit if he knows how to take their opportunity to invest in defense, energy transition and strategic autonomy.
As for Asia, China remains key in geopolitical tensions, but India is gaining prominence as a more stable and strategically aligned alternative., especially for its strong domestic demand and structural reforms. For Javier Cantero, director of Centro de Banca Privada in Barcelona of CaixabankChina is playing their cards with caution. “A certain intentionality is perceived in its current economic policy” stressing that internal growth and consumption will be key pieces in China’s position against Washington.
Positioning: Neutral for Variable Income, European Credit and Alternatives that give way to ETF
Regarding the positioning of portfolio, most managers remain neutral or slightly raised in variable income, taking advantage of the recent corrections to take positions.
The Solventis expert ensures that “the variable income remains the asset that best includes long -term economic growth. You have to stop seeing corrections as threats and start seeing them as entry opportunities. The key is not to overreach the short -term noise. “
In this sense, Georgina Sierra, Director of Financial Products of Diverinvest EAF He says that “this year is to build robust wallets in the long term. Volatility should not make you out of the market, but to refine the strategy. Composite interest only works if you are inside, and that is something that we sometimes forget in the correction phases.” For its part, Jordi Martret, Investment Director of Norz Patrimonia EAF He believes that «the S&P 500 has already corrected at levels that even discount a 10 % drop in benefits. From here, we believe that the bags have touched soil. Visibility is limited, but that does not prevent long -term value if companies are well selected. ”
In fixed income, there is still attractive American sovereign debt in the medium term (especially in covered currency) and high quality European credit, avoiding long durations to the risks of deficit and rise in types in Europe. From BNP Paribas AM, Pedro Santuy, Sales Director of ETF and indexed in the manager, He says that «despite recent volatility, European credit remains attractive. The Spreads are adjusted, but we do not see a clear trigger that justifies their extension (…) investors are looking at the fixed income with other eyes. It is no longer just protection, now it is also a source of reasonable profitability. The short part of the curve offers good opportunities, especially in quality emissions. “
There is houses that see value in high yieldalthough cautiously, and always maintaining prudent levels of liquidity to take advantage of market volatility and act tactically. From Andbank, Victor Adrià Duque, advice and discretionary management of assets, he says that “although the High Yield Spreads are adjusted, in terms of absolute value right now it offers profitability around 5.5–6%, and with quite solid fundamental ones: a very low default rate and a very contained maturity Wall that justifies that the inverter justifies. price volatility ”.
Another of the assets of which more and more managers speak are the alternatives, especially before the rise of private capital among retail customers. Here are voices that warn of the risk of illicing products to inappropriate profiles although there are profiles that believe there may be an asset return such as the Hedge Fund, especially oriented to absolute or multi -school return, as a source of diversification in an environment of more volatility or correlation between assets.
CaixaBank Am expert explains that “in our experience, even among clients of high heritage, exposure to private capital rarely exceeds 2.5%. It is a type of asset that requires training, patience and professional advice. It cannot be banalized its use in retail.»
From BNP AM they do believe that “The growth of the use of ilequid assets in portfolio has caused an adjustment: The rest of the portfolio is being cheaper. We see a clear tendency towards index funds and low -cost ETFs, especially those with low tracking error that allow efficiency without sacrificing quality. “
And we cannot forget the ETFs and passive management. While it is true that in Spain the ETFs do not enjoy the tax regime of transfer, which makes them less attractive to investment funds, there are entities that are betting on transparent advice models, charging explicit fees and avoiding setbacks, which reinforces interest in low -cost and high efficiency vehicles.
Here the relevant, says Jaume Curadó, director and assembly of assets in Catalonia at Creand WM“It is not if it is an ETF or a background, but if it provides value. Our model is based on independent and transparent advice: we charge the customer for the service, not for the product we sell it. And that allows us to choose the best at all times.”
In this sensemore and more houses use this instrument to build positions for diversified fixed income —Ity very difficult to achieve with live bonds – or to gain immediate exposure to certain sectors or factors (for example, duration, credit quality or geography).