Published in El Economista.
One of the maxims that most often crosses the minds of investors and traders after exercises like the one that the world stock markets have just recorded in 2025 is the one that reads The market may continue to advance longer than many expecteven when the feeling of vertigo begins to settle in the environment.
This statement does not invalidate the increases accumulated in recent months, but it forces us to exercise extreme discipline and look for clues in the large markets that usually mark the relevant turns in the market, which in Europe they are none other than Frankfurt and Paris.
In this context, it is worth highlighting how the Ibex 35, which continues to transmit a feeling of strength and has started the year as it ended last year -in rocket mode-, has found a new ally that has entered the most bullish technical situation that exists, the absolute free rise. This is the DAX 40. The German index had been trapped in a wide side since June last year, accumulating energy, and this week it broke the almost perfect balance between supply and demand, beating the ceiling of the 25,000 points.
«The fact that the selective has resolved this situation upwards, and has done so when the previous trend is upward, suggests that the scenario for 2026 is optimistic in the short term by opening the door to an attack on the 26,500 pointswith an additional path of close to 6.5%,” says Joan Cabrero, technical analyst and strategist at elEconomista.es.
The German stock market is, in fact, the most bullish in Europe so far this yearmoving 0.50% away from the rest of the large selective companies in the region thanks, in part, to the good macro data published, such as ultimately this Thursday, factory orders for November, which exceeded estimates and grew in year-on-year terms.
“Both orders for manufacturing and capital goods are accelerating and the solid domestic demand stands out, although exports are also improving,” they point out from Bankinter’s analysis department. «After the delay of 9 months in the approval of the budget, The fiscal program with the highest spending on infrastructure should make the economy gain traction in the coming months«, they point out.
«The historic turn of Germany, which has relaxed its strict debt ceiling to deploy an ambitious investment plan in energy transition and new infrastructure, marks a before and after. “Europe can become one of the engines of profitability in 2026,” points out Jordi Martret, investment director of Norz Patrimonia, who assures that This public impulse must be translated into “measurable growth so that Europe leaves behind more than a decade of divergence from the United States.”
«The only but that can be found in this idyllic bullish situation is to see how the French CAC 40 is still not being able to attack similar resistances in the 8,330 pointswhich is the ceiling of its extensive consolidation, something necessary to be able to trust in the sustainability and reliability of an eventual breakup in Frankfurt,” the expert clarifies. That is now the only formality that remains for the bullfighting in Europe for «aspire to a new upward stretch in 2026.”
Risks to monitor
Although this technical objective is less than 1.5%, if we look at the macro level, the fact that the budget deficit remains high in the neighboring country limits the government’s ability to act and therefore the stock markets to execute this new upward stretch.
Among the major sources of risk that could condition the evolution of the markets, there are also several analysts who point out a possible rebound in inflation expectations – a consequence of more expansive fiscal policies in both Europe and the United States – as one of the challenges that the Old Continent may face in the coming months. “This scenario would pressure central banks to maintain high rates for longer, delaying the economic recovery and raising the cost of financing for families and companies,” they say in Norz patrimonia.
The deterioration of the labor market, especially in the most industrialized economies of the eurozone, is another point that the market fears due to the direct impact it would have on consumption, by weakening internal demand and putting a brake on economic activity at a key moment.
“In short, Europe has a lot at stake in 2026. Germany’s ability to execute its investment bazooka can determine not only the competitiveness of the continent, but also its economic role in the coming decades,” concludes Martret.
What levels to look at on the Ibex 35
The Ibex 35, for its part, remains without showing signs of exhaustion for now, but registers less momentum at the beginning of the year compared to that registered throughout 2025. Something that would change if Paris joins its allies.
“For there to be signs of buyer exhaustion, the minimum requirement is that the Ibex 35 closes a week below the minimums of the previous week, something that has not happened for more than a month and a half,” details Cabrero, who recalls that this week’s minimums and the first support to watch appear in the 17,440 points and those from the previous week are in the 17,140 integers.