According to the analysis of Norz Heritage2026 is shaping up to be a key year for global markets. The economic and financial outlook points to a constructive scenario, with outstanding opportunities in Europe, consolidation of artificial intelligence and stability of the dollar.
At the same time, experts warn of risks that could condition the evolution of the economy, such as inflation, the dynamics of the labor market and the correct execution of strategic investment plans.
Norz Patrimonia experts highlight a series of key factors that will mark opportunities, but also point out the risks capable of conditioning global economic evolution: the recovery of European growth, the stabilization of the dollar and the translation of massive investment in artificial intelligence into real productivity.
The report presented by the financial advisory company draws a constructive scenario for the markets, with clear opportunities in Europe and in sectors linked to technological innovation, but also warns about risks that could condition global economic dynamics, such as inflation, the evolution of the labor market and the execution of strategic investment plans.
Jordi Martret, investment director of Norz Patrimonia
“The economic cycle continues to be surprisingly resilient. We do not see a recession on the horizon, but we do see the end of the period of disinflation that has accompanied Europe and that is in a terminal phase in the United States. The challenge will not be growth, but inflation and the ability to execute strategic investments.”
To understand how these axes will materialize, the report develops five blocks of analysis, which allow the expected evolution of each region, currency and key sector to be evaluated in detail. This approach allows not only to identify investment opportunities, but also to anticipate the risks that could condition global dynamics in the coming year:
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Europe before its last train
The Norz Patrimonia report places Europe as the potential protagonist of the year. Germany’s historic turnaround, which has relaxed its strict debt ceiling to deploy an ambitious investment plan in energy transition and new infrastructure, marks a before and after.
“Europe can become one of the engines of profitability in 2026, but also the biggest disappointment if Germany or the European Union fail to execute. It is not enough to adjust valuations; real business benefits are needed,” says Martret.
This public push must be translated into measurable growth for Europe to leave behind more than a decade of divergence from the US. Sectors linked to real assets (infrastructure, basic materials, real estate) appear clearly undervalued.
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United States, leadership intact but pending CAPEX in AI
Norz Patrimonia rejects that we are facing a technological bubble similar to the year 2000. Large companies maintain solid balance sheets and their profits continue to exceed the rest of the developed regions. The risk, the firm points out, is not so much in an imminent correction as in the need for the enormous investments in artificial intelligence, concentrated in the calls Magnificent Seven, begin to materialize in transversal productivity.
“The big question for 2026 is whether the CAPEX allocated to AI will be truly monetized. The sustainability of the market will depend on the improvements reaching the rest of the companies and not just seven names,” Martret explains.
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Dollar, stabilization after a year of adjustment
After twelve months of sharp decline, driven by doubts about US debt and the role of the dollar as a reserve currency, a lateral behavior is anticipated for 2026. The estimated short-term range is between 1.20 and 1.22 against the euro. The approval in the USA of the GENIUS Actwhich requires that the stablecoins are backed by Treasury bonds, introduces an additional factor of structural demand.
“The market may have overreacted to the weakness of the dollar. The alternatives are not stronger. Once the cycle of rate cuts in the US ends, we expect stability and even a bullish surprise”, Martret points out.
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Interest rates: limited room for central banks
The firm warns that the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut rates is close to being exhausted, especially if the phenomenon of no laying, no firing (companies that neither hire nor fire) puts pressure on the labor market. In Europe, the ECB could even face the opposite dilemma: raising rates if large German investments generate inflationary pressures.
In fixed income, Norz Patrimonia does not see value in the long sections of the curve, neither in Europe nor in the US, and favors medium-duration corporate credit, subordinated debt and hybrids from quality issuers. Emerging debt in local currency is emerging as another opportunity given the relative weakness of the dollar.
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Asia and emerging countries: innovation on the rise, China in unknown
India will continue to be the region with the highest economic growth in the world and Asia, in general, continues to lead technological innovation alongside the United States. China maintains a weak economic pace due to its internal demand, but it has ample room to apply new fiscal and monetary policies.
Europe facing an economic turning point in 2026
In addition, the report prepared by the experts and analysts at Norz Patrimonia points out three major sources of risk that could determine the economic course of 2026 and condition the evolution of the markets. The first is a possible rebound in inflation expectations, a consequence of more expansive fiscal policies in both Europe and the United States. This scenario would pressure central banks to maintain high rates for longer, delaying the economic recovery and raising the cost of financing for families and companies.
The second risk is linked to the deterioration of the labor market, especially in the most industrialized economies of the eurozone. An increase in unemployment or a slowdown in job creation would have a direct impact on consumption, weakening domestic demand and putting a brake on economic activity at a key moment.
The third focus of vulnerability is the execution of the European investment plan, with special attention to the role of Germany. The success, or failure, of this investment agenda is decisive to promote industrial modernization, accelerate the energy transition and sustain European competitiveness against the United States and China. Incomplete execution would leave Europe structurally behind in innovation, productivity and capital attraction.
“In short, Europe has a lot at stake in 2026. Germany’s ability to execute its investment bazooka can determine not only the continent’s competitiveness, but also its economic role in the coming decades,” concludes Martret.