This November the markets have given themselves a small respite after the powerful month of October, yet they remain almost at historic highs. One of the drivers of the market in the month of October was that the market began to discount a rate cut by the FED in December, however, in recent weeks this drop has been questioned due to employment data from September that indicated strong job creation but which contradicted other more recent employment data that indicated the opposite. We have changed the narrative three times this month, from lowering rates to not touching them and lowering them again. On December 10 we will clear up doubts about the last important economic event of the year.
This November, Nvidia has been put in check, and precisely the origin has been another company of the magnificent 7, Alphabet. It is still curious that just a year ago the latter was seen as a big loser in the AI race and just twelve months later there is talk that it could even take center stage from Nvidia, by being able to manufacture its own chips. The “disadvantage” of Nvidia is that they are “only” Chip designers, Alphabet is also the user and owner of the largest database necessary for AI to work, it could be the perfect vertical integration of the industry, it has also launched Gemini 3, which takes the lead ahead of Ghatgpt, Deepseek and is also connected to Google’s database. We are attending a competition that is going to be very interesting to follow. It is a market completely dominated by narratives, what changes is which of them are the protagonists, now it’s time to “lower or not lower rates on December 10.”
Highlighting this month is the Critpowinter that we are experiencing, with falls in Bitcoin and Ethereum from highs close to 30%. This type of behavior is usually common and it will be necessary to see if the usual very positive seasonality is repeated in the final weeks of the year. In recent years, Bitcoin’s correlation with financial markets has grown as its connection with them has increased.
The remainder of 2025 and the beginning of 26 will definitely be marked by the FED meeting, Powell’s successor will take office in May, it is expected that he will then be able to lower rates, although we will have to see at that time what the state of the economy is. As long as we wait for that December 10th and see if once and for all, we have good news in geopolitics.