Gonzalo Bernardos' forecast on what will happen to housing in 2025: "real estate boom"

Gonzalo Bernardos’ forecast on what will happen to housing in 2025: "real estate boom"

This 2025 are expected to continue rising housing pricesespecially those for purchase, although those for rent will also maintain an upward trend. Specifically, looking ahead to next year, the economist Gonzalo Bernardos He is optimistic after what he considers a “good period for the mortgage market.”

“In 2024, the drop in interest rates and the greater willingness of banks to grant credit will have generated a 19% growth in the number of mortgages granted”he explains. Likewise, the economist is confident and predicts another year of growth, with increases of 25% in the number of mortgages granted and 35% in the total credit granted.

With more attractive interest rates and more purchases and sales at a higher amount, the expert expects a “real estate boom” in 2025, although he states: “It will not be in the form of a bubble.”

“The preferred modality for the new mortgage holders has been the fixed loanespecially in the last months of the year. This demonstrates a sign of financial maturity on the part of borrowers and a reduction of risks on the part of banks,” adds Bernardos.

“We have to take advantage of the moment, which is now”

For its part, the mortgage negotiation fintech Trioteca is clear with its message for the coming months: Lower interest rates will lead to cheaper mortgagesbut for increasingly expensive apartments.

We must take advantage of the moment, which is now“, explains the general director of Trioteca, Ricard Garriga, who adds: “With a market that offers fixed mortgages below the Euribor at 2.4%, the purchase is already attractive enough to postpone it and face an increase in the price of the mortgage. dwelling”.

Prices continue to rise

He median home value financed closed the year with its highest quarterly figure (260,539 euros), leaving the annual average at 243,294 euros, which represents an increase of 14.85% compared to the previous year, when the figure was 211,676 euros. “If we compare the last year’s home prices With this one, the difference is significant,” they say from Trioteca.

For its general director, this trend is marked by three major factors: the rate dropwhich has allowed the entry of new profiles that previously could not afford housing; the increase in prices in the rental market, due to “poorly executed policies”; and the so-called frozen offer: “While in 2023 it was common to get a price reduction due to lack of buyers, now the market is defined in one phrase: ‘either take it or leave it’, which makes it difficult to find the perfect home” .

Regarding the average value of the mortgage requested, it can be seen that, despite closing the year with its highest figure (185,151 euros in the fourth quarter), the annual average (123,736 euros) is much lower than that of 2023 ( 155,512 euros). “This is because some buyers no longer allocate all their savings to the purchase. As they have much more attractive interests, they choose not to become decapitalized,” the company concludes.