Gold has marked this Wednesday a new historical maximum promoted by the expectation of imminent type cuts in the United States and increasing doubts about the independence of the Federal Reserve. The cash price reached $ 3,546.99 per ounce, and is maintained above 3,530, in a streak that has led the revaluation of the year above 30%.
The immediate engine is monetary. Future types discount with high probabilities a 25 basic points cut at the September Fed meeting, which will take place on the 16th and 17th, an appointment confirmed in the minutes of the last meeting. In an environment of lower types, an asset without coupon like gold gains relative attractiveness.
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The political factor adds fuel, since the pressures of President Donald Trump on the Fed (including attempts to cease responsible and influencing the type path) have raised institutional uncertainty. The dismissal of Governor Lisa Cook, appealed to justice and answered by hundreds of economists, has revived the alarms about the autonomy of the Central Bank, an extreme that has also deserved public warnings from the ECB.
Therefore, investment flows accompany the movement. The largest fund supported by Gold, Spdr Gold Trust, chains tickets and has raised its holdings to the highest level since August 2022, while central banks maintain a buyer bias, according to the most recent sector surveys.
Not only gold flies. La Plata moves at the highest levels since 2011 (it has come to touch the $ 41) and rises more than 40% so far this year, supported by its double condition of refuge and industrial input in clean technologies.
The background is of high macro and geopolitical volatility. The combination of a weakest dollar at times, the search for coverage and the rebound of risk aversion has reinforced the demand for precious metals. In the short term, the market will be aware of the US Employment Report and, above all, whether gold manages to close above $ 3,500, a psychological level that can attract more technical purchases.
What to know? The Fed will decide on September 17 in Washington with the economy even in slowdown and under unusual political pressure. The key will be the magnitude and rhythm of the cuts and if institutional tensions persist. If the monetary turn is confirmed and the flows of central banks and ETF continue, the gold support would remain solid, although a rebound of the dollar or the real yields can subtract traction in the short term.