The European Commission registered on July 16 a reform of the Special Tax Directive of the tobacco that substantially hardens the minimum types in the EU, incorporates for the first time the electronic cigarettes, the heated tobacco and the nicotine bags, and sets its entry into force from 2028, in other words, a new rise at the price of tobacco and that will also affect electronic cigarettes (vapers) and nicotine sachets.
The Executive proposes to raise the minimum to 215 euros per 1,000 cigarettes (and 63% of the weighted average price), € 215/kg for liar sting, € 143/kg or for 1,000 units for cigars and cigarettes, € 108/1,000 units for heated tobacco, and between 0.12 and € 0.36/ml for e-liquids, among others. Brussels calculates that, if applied, the rise will be translated “in general” in 1 to 2 euros more per pack. However, the proposal must be approved unanimously of the 27 in the Council, as required by article 113 of the Treaty.
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In parallel, the Colegio de Commissioners sent to the Council and to the Parliament another key piece, which is a new EU (Tdor) resource that allocates 15% of the minimum types harmonized to the community budget. The proposal does not depend legally on the fiscal review, but is designed to complement it and foresee a stable collection from 2028.
The fiscal offensive has lit the response of a large group of specialists. September 1, 83 international public health expertsnicotine dependence and tobacco control referred a letter to Ursula von der Leayen the commissioners in which they ask to reject a “tax-raid” on lower-risk products (vapeo, heated and pouches) and avoid fiscally equating them to the conventional cigarette.
“To affirm that the damage of the products without combustion is comparable to that of the cigarette contradicts scientific evidence,” they argue, and demand a tax proportional to the risk of facilitating the transition from smokers. The letter is confirmed by entities such as Ethra, Scohre and the Spanish medical platform for reducing tobacco damage (PRDT), according to the European Commission.
The price of tobacco could reach 7 euros
In the Spanish market, where the average price of a standard package moves around 5 to 6 euros, the new European land would raise the PVP “in general” between one and two euros; and some brands could touch the 7 euros if manufacturers completely transfer the rise.
Hacienda entered record figures per tobacco in 2024 (8,965 million adding special taxes and VAT, according to published calculations), with special taxes totaling 22,128 million (the entire chapter) that year, according to the Tax Agency. A increase in European minimums would modify the tax base and income basket, but can also alter consumption behaviors.
When rising the price of tobacco and taxes, another counterpart occurs and is illicit trade. According to a KPMG study, in 2024, 38.9 billion illicit cigarettes were consumed in the EU (9.2% of the total), with France as an epicenter (18.7 billion, of which 7.8 billion were falsified) and a strong increase in the Netherlands (17.9% quota).
Science against fiscal policy
The core of the controversy is sanitary. Brussels justifies hardening for the objective of the European Cancer Fight Plan (less than 5% of smokers in 2040) and for the need to “reduce the attractiveness” of substitute products among young people; He even cites evidence of “entrance door effect” to the cigarette in the case of e-cigs.
To this is added the commission’s plan to introduce an express tax channeled by the Swindos, for financing the European rearmament, which Stockholm plans for “unacceptable”. In this way, the political pulse further complicates the fiscal reform of tobacco.
The signatories of the letter replicate with pairs reviewed literature that aims at a substantially lower risk of the alternatives without combustion and their usefulness to quit smoking. The living review of Cochrane concludes with “high certainty” that electronic cigarettes with nicotine increase abandonment rates against classical replacement therapy; and the great review of the British government (OHID, 2022) confirms a lower exposure to toxic and biomarkers of damage to tobacco.