He returned to the presidency and resumed his tariff war against everything and against all, we are surprised by the amplitude of tariffs both in quantity and in affected countries, allow me the joke to comment that it will be easier to say that countries will not impose a tariff . He was in the forecasts that we were going to have a second tariff round of Mr. Trump as he did in his first term. If we remember what happened in that mandate, the tariffs imposed them with greater forcefulness already in 2018 against steel and aluminum globally and initiated a commercial war with China mainly, among many other more secondary fronts. How did everything end? During 2018 we saw how the inflation data measured by the Deflactor of Private Consumption (PCE) began to rebound, the underlying did not exceed 2% but the normal stood at 2.5%. Mr. Powell, already president of the Fed raised types during 2018 to prevent inflation from firing, the consequences of that Fed movement caused by the inflationary rebound was the storm that we lived in the last quarter of 2018 where the S&P500 It dropped almost 20% in just two months, the Fed was scared and announced the end of increases, inflation relaxed and we had an important market rally that was truncated in 2020 with the Covid crisis.
Many believe that the Fed was wrong by uploading types in 2018 and many others believe that it only did its job in the face of inflation overheating, whatever the question is whether the Fed would act again in the same way as in 2018.
We believe that these measures announced by Mr. Trump is a starting point in the negotiation and the final drawing will look little like the initial, in fact, while we write this note we have the news that the tariff to Mexico It is postponed a month after the telephone conversation between the president of the country and Mr. Trump and the tax to Canada…
This has done nothing but start and we cannot get carried away by the short term panic, our position is that, although the US does not have so much to lose as other geographical areas, it still has much to lose, if the Fed looks Forced to act as in 2018 the consequences for the bag can be similar, hopefully both Powell and Trump have learned something.
Meanwhile, for the month of February the most important thing will be the results ofNvidia On February 26, it seems that everything is stopped by tariff policy, but with the open front with Deepseek, It will be very interesting to see what Nvidia Say about it, remember that the rest of the large technological ones have kept their investments intact Capexin the case of Goal Mega investment of 60 billion USD and Alphabet 75 thousand. Didn’t they know anything about this movement of Deepseek? Time will say …