The stress indicator remained in a low risk zone in the second semester
• Since January changes are incorporated to improve and expand the indicator
• Among the main risk sources are the most classic financial risks, among which market risk, those derived from non -bank financial intermediation (IFNB) and the medium and long term (cybersecurity, cryptoactive, sustainability) stand out, sustainability)
The National Securities Market Commission (CNMV) has made public the financial stability note corresponding to December 2024, which contains the stress indicator of financial markets. This indicator provides a real time measure of the systemic risk of the Spanish financial system when evaluating and adding a total of 18 indicators in six segments of the financial system (Variable income, fixed income, financial intermediaries, monetary market, derivatives and gear market). The stress indicator remained in a low risk zone during the second half of 2024, as well as the first, except in the first days of August due to the turbulence that markets crossed in that period.
The indicator closed the year at a level of 0.13. In addition, it should be noted that the CNMV evaluated in 2024 three possible changes in the metrics that make up the general indicator and decided to adopt two of them. This analysis is detailed in the financial stability note, and it is indicated that since January 1 of this year the CNMV publishes the revised version of the indicator. In the first days of 2025 the indicator registered a slight rebound to a level of 0.21 due to the increase in metrics that represent volatility in different segments.
The most relevant risk sources described in the note point, above all, to the maintenance of geopolitical risks at very high levels due to the coexistence of several of them among which armed conflicts in Ukraine and in the Middle East. Political instability in France and Germany, economic relations with China, the possibility of commercial tensions and other uncertainties derived from the position of the new administration of The US also highlights, in this publication, other relevant risk sources derived, for example, of the possible divergence that can take the course of monetary policies on both sides of the Atlantic and the expansion of the new technologies sector , accentuating, on this occasion, the risks associated with cryptocurrencies, after the recent rally that show their prices.
In the field of evaluation of the most typical financial risks, perception of market risk continues to excel in variable income assets, especially in markets with greater overvaluation potential. The credit risk would have been partially attenuated, in view of the sales made in interest rates, which are already translating into an improvement in agents financing conditions. In the field of IFNB, the evaluation of the risk of liquidity and leverage does not reveal any relevant vulnerability in terms of financial stability. The evaluation of other risks in this area indicates that there is a very high degree of interconnection between the funds if they are attended to measures that value the similarity of fixed income portfolios.
Among other interest data, in the December note it also includes:
– Annual closure figures of Spanish values markets, both primary and secondary. The Variable Income Markets closed the year with a clearly bullish balance, rarely interrupted, in a volatility environment contained and increased the contracted volumes. The average daily value of hiring in the continuous market was 1,223 million euros, 5.2% more than that of 2023. The total negotiation of Spanish shares in the second half of the year reached 336,805 million euros, 21, 21, about 21, 21, about 21, 21, 21, 7% more than in the same period of 2024. Fixed income markets crossed different moments in 2024, marked, fundamentally, by expectations on monetary policy.
– Figures from the investment fund sector: at the end of September the assets of the funds stood slightly below 394,000 million euros, while participant accounts exceeded 16.3 million, after increasing more than 300,000 in nine months . These accounts corresponded to 5.3 million investors, almost 200,000 more than at the end of 2023. In liquidity risk analysis, resistance tests (stress test) continue to point out that the industry is, in general, resistant to the stages raised.
– Data on the participation of retail investors in markets, which continues upwards: they concentrated 7.7% of the operations to buy Ibex 35 and 9.2% of sales operations (7.4% and 8.9%, respectively in 2023). –
– Sustainable funds and ASG emissions: IIC assets with sustainability characteristics (those under article 8 and 9 in accordance with the SFDR Regulations) maintain their relevance in the total sector. Besides. The total debt emissions with ASG characteristics made by Spanish issuing in 2024 was 20,570 million euros, which exceeds the value recorded in 2023 (16,796 million).
– Data on the cryptoactive market: which grew significantly in 2024, especially in recent months, reaching historical maximums in terms of capitalization above 3.7 billion dollars in December.