What has really happened to the markets in 2025? Volatility, Trump rewriting the rules of the game, the dollar setting the global pace and sectors such as technology and industry skyrocketing returns. Jordi Martret, Investment Director of Norz Patrimonia, reveals the hidden keys of the year and what can change everything in 2026.
What assessment do you make of the markets in 2025?
A year with a lot of movement and a lot of volatilitywith all the emergence of Mr. Trump, the strong falls that we had until April, it has obviously been an important part of the year. What happens is that in April we saw a bit of resistance in the economic cycle.
In the end it began Europe in a very strong way, with all the promises of a very important fiscal expansion, especially on the part of Germany. But the truth is that what has continued to drive business profits, in the end, has once again been the United States. Europe had an important reaction, slightly adjusting valuations that had become excessively out of date, but the growth in economic profits To date, the United States continues to lead.
Key year also for the dollar. Being covered or not being covered has been a very important part that has marked the final returns.
What are the sectors and regions that have worked best for you in your portfolio?
What has worked best for us has basically been the technology sector and the industrial sector.
We believe that there is a very important current, the artificial intelligence is not a fadis here to stay. Then we can discuss whether the valuations of some companies are more demanding or less demanding, but they all make money. And then also in the industrial sector many companies, which perhaps do not appear as much on the front line, the truth is that their behavior has been very powerful.
and in Europe we have seen very positive returns beyond banking which has been the great driver of profitability mainly in Europe, but above all we have seen important revaluations in the small european companies. And we believe that it can continue to be a very interesting area of investment.
What risks can change the outlook?
Mostly the risk that inflation forecasts could rebound.
Right now the macroeconomic scenario, both in Europe as in USA It’s good, inflation is more or less controlled. In the United States we are far from 2%, but it seems that we are getting there. And one of the main risks there could be is that the FED lower rates more aggressively than would be good; That is to say, if a banker, a governor, a president of the FED comes in very closely with Mr. Trump and wants to lower rates more than he should, then we could see a rise in inflation that could shake the current scenario.
And then also the labor market in both the United States and Europe. In the United States we are seeing that companies are performing very well, etc. But we are also seeing an increase in the number of layoffs in recent months. Let’s see if this is simply something circumstantial or could be a part that could derail this panorama a little taken with a grain of salt, we are not in an economic recession, we are growing, but well, everything is still a little delicate.
Outlook for 2026
In 2026 at an economic level we believe that this delicate balance will be maintainedwe do not see economic recession anywhere.
We hope that it will finally be the year of Europe on an economic levelbut above all due to the strong expansionary fiscal policies, all the spending programs that have been announced. In the investment spending programs of the European Union, the truth is that we take it with a lot of skepticism, given the precedents, but the German investment plan does obviously encourage us a little.
In any case, all this has to be translated and we are still not seeing final results in the companies, and this in the end from an investment point of view, is what we hope for to really Europe can take center stagewho needs it.
A dollar depreciation It could be favorable for emerging countries, let’s see there. It would possibly also be one of the points to look at for next year. And also China online, also closely linked to current geopolitics, how is it resolved.
Published in Investment Strategies