The Government has decided to raise the growth forecast for the Spanish economy for 2025 to 2.9%, two tenths more than previously estimated, as sources from the Ministry of Economy have confirmed to EFE.
The Minister of Economy, Carlos Body, will present this Tuesday the update of the macroeconomic picture in the Council of Ministers, to, based on these bases, calculate the spending ceiling of the General State Budgets of 2026 and define the new path of public deficit.
They will lay the foundations for calculating the spending ceiling for the budgets
The Executive has carried out this review just two months after having adjusted its previous estimate to 2.7%, an update that coincided with the upward modification made by the National Statistics Institute (INE) on the 2024 growth, finally placed at 3.5%.
After the INE update, all forecasts from international and national organizations have been approaching 3%. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) placed the growth of Spanish GDP at 2.9% in October, while the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) raised its calculation to 3%.
The new growth and deficit estimates will constitute the technical basis for setting the 2026 spending ceiling, an essential element to begin the preparation of the future General State Budgets. The Council of Ministers plans to approve it in the same session in which the revised macroeconomic picture will be presented.
Outlook for 2026
In relation to 2026, the Executive maintains for now a growth forecast of 2.2%, a figure it set in September due to the expectation of a moderation in the economic pace. However, both the IMF and AIReF have slightly lower estimates, between 2% and 2.1%, respectively, which opens the door to a possible revision at this Tuesday’s meeting.