The commercial relationship between the United States and China faces a new turning point with the imminent expiration, on Tuesday, of the tariff truce that has governed during the last 90 days. If the relationship in itself was enquista, now it is only expected that it ends up getting worse and causing a small chaos in the markets. While Donald Trump’s administration seeks to reorient a key alliance for the US economy, conversations are still fallen in background matters such as competence competition, struggle for hegemony in artificial intelligence or links with the Russia of Vladimir Putin.
When only two days are missing to finish the provisional truce between the two countries, the two largest economies on the planet have not managed to reach a common point on tariffs to close a definitive agreement. Despite this, Washington could lengthen the break to continue negotiations. A ‘commercial war’ of wear that does not seem to have an immediate end or a commercial agreement as has already happened with the European Union or other nations.
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The Treasury Secretary, Scott Besent, confirmed that there is a “Principle of Agreement” to avoid a tariff climb that would threaten to unlink two closely interdependent markets: the American for its consumption and the Chinese for its export capacity.
A prolonged dialogue process
In May, both parties sealed in Geneva the current truce, which implied a reduction of 115 percentage points in reciprocal rates, softening a commercial embargo de facto. The last meeting, held in Stockholm at the end of July, evidenced the will to continue negotiating to stop a commercial war that could alter the global supply chains and generate instability in the markets.
However, US commercial representative Jamieson Greer warned that, without agreement, Chinese import tariffs could climb at 80% or 85%. In parallel, the Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, pointed to the possibility of another 90 -day truce.
Added tensions: fentanyl, oil and rare earths
The commercial dispute has been complicated by other fronts. Washington accuses Beijing of “Export overcapacity” And it maintains tariffs of 53.6 %, a figure that the Chinese minister of commerce, Wang Wentao, broken down by 10 % base, 20 % linked to the production of chemical precursors of the fentanyl and an additional 23.6 % for previous taxes.
In the strategic field, Beijing approved licenses to export rare earths, while the United States raised some chips export restrictions. However, Washington demands greater access to these resources, of which China controls 70 % of world production and almost 90 % of high performance magnets.
In addition, the threat of American sanctions for the Chinese importation of Russian oil persists, a measure that could dynamite conversations, especially on the eve of the meeting between Trump and Putin scheduled for Friday in Alaska.