Sweden has reached an unprecedented milestone in public health: only 3.7% of its adult population smokes daily, a figure that places the country first in the world in residual levels of smoking. The data, corresponding to 2025, confirms a decades-long trend in which its citizens have not given up nicotine, but rather cigarettes, replacing them with smokeless alternatives. And that has reopened the debate about which path Europe should follow.
The decline in the Scandinavian country is due to the disappearance of the traditional cigarette, replaced by non-combustion alternatives such as nicotine pouches. This change in pattern is having concrete results. Various studies It is estimated that diseases have been reduced and some 3,000 deaths annually attributable to smoking have been avoided thanks to this transition. Val
As a result, Sweden has the lowest rates of lung cancer and tobacco-related mortality in the EU, with particularly marked differences compared to other Member States. The explanation, according to studies, is that the main problem is not nicotine, but smoke. By eliminating cigarette combustion, much of the risk is reduced.
Faced with this, the model being debated in Brussels points towards an approach that equates cigarettes with alternatives such as nicotine pouches, vaping or heated tobacco, despite their differences in terms of risk, and which in some cases has been accompanied by an increase in smuggling and the illicit market.
New Zealand, the next success story
New Zealand is following the same path as Sweden and is close to becoming the next “smoke-free” country. The number of smokers has fallen in this country to 6.8%, while ten years ago it exceeded 16%, at the same time that vaping has been increasing.
The New Zealand authorities have promoted a determined and effective harm reduction strategy, promoting the use of vapers among adult smokers as an alternative to traditional cigarettes and have established regulated sales channels and strict controls to limit access by minors. The result is one of the fastest reductions in smoking recorded in the developed world.
Although official organizations themselves avoid establishing a direct causal relationship, the coexistence of both phenomena such as the rise of vaping and the collapse of smoking points to a clear change in the way people consume nicotine.
Two models against smoking: substitution or restriction
Meanwhile, in Europe the review of the Tobacco Products Directive (TPD) is being debated. According to the proposals under discussion, the European Commission is studying moving towards a regulatory equalization between traditional cigarettes and non-combustion alternatives, an approach that, according to different experts, ignores that not all products imply the same level of risk.
While countries like Sweden have reduced smoking to historic lows by replacing cigarettes, the European Union is studying a framework that could treat products with very different risks in a similar way. In Spain, where more than 25% of the population smokes, this debate has a direct impact on both public health and fiscal policy.
The experience of some European countries also shows the effects of very restrictive policies. In France, where tobacco has one of the highest tax burdens in Europe, illegal consumption is already close to 38% of the total, the highest in the EU. A similar pattern is observed in Germany, where the lack of a clear framework for some products has favored the emergence of illegal channels, where around 16% of the inspected points of sale sell them irregularly, often with counterfeit products and without health control.
In short, while countries such as Sweden and New Zealand have managed to reduce smoking by opting for cigarette replacement, European prohibition measures raise doubts about their medium-term effectiveness in getting citizens to give up tobacco. The underlying question is whether the goal should be to eliminate nicotine or, as these cases suggest, eliminate smoke.