Electrification advances faster than the network. A study prepared by EY in collaboration with the Technological Research Institute (IIT) estimates that Spain must allocate, between 3,969 and 5,277 million euros per year to 2035 to adapt the networks to a strong increase in electrical demand. The projection places the demand in a fork of 306 to 361 TWH in 2030 and from 377 to 480 TWh in 2035. The document itself warns that the investment limits proposed by the Royal Decree project presented on September 12 would only be compatible with the conservative scenario and, in addition, up to 2029.
This electric consumption leap responds to three large vectors. On the one hand, the electrification of industrial processes below 400 ºC, with a potential of up to 129 TWH in 2035. To this are added the deployment of heat pumps in the residential park and electric mobility. The third block is made up of new demands of demand that are green hydrogen, data and desalination centers that, together, could add up to 170 TWH in the middle of the next decade, according to the extrapolations of the report.
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Adapt to the new demand
“We are facing a structural change in the way of generating, distributing and consuming energy that will require sustained investments and territorial planning,” said Antonio Hernández García, a partner of regulated sectors, economic analysis and sustainability of EY. Marta Sánchez, Ey Spain Energy responsible partner, stressed that anticipating the demand potential “will allow distributors to advance investments, while administrations and regulators adapt standards and aid to attract new industry.”
The diagnosis collides with the current reality of the network, subject to saturation in various knots. In the Colloquium after the presentation, the general director of the employer of great consumers AEE, Pedro González, warned of a “bubble” of applications that do not translate into projects: “Many things are just paper.” The manager demanded a more efficient allocation of the connection to prevent industrial investments from frustrating or moving to conventional technologies if electrification does not get time access.
Decarbonization
In parallel, the new use industry claims certainty. Alejandro Labanda, president of the España Verde and Connected platform, asked to maintain the remuneration model, give priority to connect to the existing industry and articulate cost reduction mechanisms for large consumers (such as hydrogen plants or intensive industries) through public aid that accelerate their decarbonization. As for the data centers, the operators indicate that the Spanish deadlines (which are around 5 years to implement an installation) require a more agile regulation so as not to lose investments against competitors.
The distribution of the investments raised by the study places the bulk in the growth of demand, with peaks towards the end of the decade. Digitization and replacement of assets show more stable trajectories throughout the period. The challenge, the sources of the sector coincide, which is not only financial, since it requires territorial planning (electrical soil, medium and low voltage reinforcements, new knots) and governance of the ability to order the priority between projects and uses.
The remuneration of the networks emerges as a critical variable. In full pulse between companies, government and CNMC, the sector warns that an insufficient rate would put the execution of the plans at risk. The employer Aelec claims to raise it, while the regulator has proposed an intermediate adjustment. The Ey Linza report is linked to the need for stable frames to ensure the investment appetite demanded by the transition.
Mass electrification is also a PNIEC condition to meet the climatic objectives. The study itself places the industrial block along with hydrogen, data centers and mobility as engines that will concentrate between half and some more demand in 2030. But converting the potential into real consumption depends on unlocking the bottleneck in access and connection, and on accompanying standards, permits and financing.