The available housing scarcity has become the main motor of the price escalation in Spain. Between 2021 and 2024, the country stopped building between 515,000 and 765,000 houses regarding the needs of new homes, a lag that, according to Caixabank Research, explains up to 39% of the accumulated housekeeping of the house in that period. In parallel, the demand is maintained at maximum, since between June 2024 and June 2025, 700,000 sale were closed, levels not seen since 2007, and in July 2025 the operations grew by 14.3% year -on -year, with a strong pull also of the mortgages.
Prices advance at a higher rate than inflation. The IMIE of Tinsa points to 11.9% year -on -year in August 2025, 8.9 points above the CPI. The capitals and large cities lead the increase (+12.9%), followed by the island territories (+16.5%). Madrid illustrates the pressure with values that reach 5,723 euros/m², a historical maximum, while the new work is projected to 3,291 euros/m² in late 2025. The consultant clarifies that, despite recent acceleration, the national average price is still 6.9% below the 2007 nominal peak in its series; Other official indicators already place the average above that nominal roof, although not in real terms except in new housing. Display is due to different methodologies (appraisal against transaction).
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The root of the problem is in the offer. Despite the reactivation, with 132,000 visas in the 12 months until May 2025 (+13%), the construction rate does not cover household formation, which exceeds 180,000 new units per year. CaixaBank Research calculates that the accumulated deficit is equivalent to 3% –4% of the main park and that a good part of the new needs have been covered by reconvirting non -main homes in main. The imbalance is concentrated in provinces such as Madrid, Alicante, Valencia, Barcelona and Malaga, which total more than 340,000 pending units; At the opposite end, territories of empty Spain have marginal surpluses or deficits.
Demand does not yield. To demographic factors (Spain exceeds 49 million inhabitants and 19.5 million households) the improvement of purchasing power, decrease in types and labor dynamism are added. In addition, the international purchase reaches records, standing at 18% of sales in the year until the first quarter of 2025 (133,000 operations) corresponded to foreigners, with special intensity in the Valencian Community, Balearic Islands and the Canary Islands. The Costa Blanca has established itself as a preferential destination, with average prices around 350,000 euros for apartments and 1.2 million for single -family. This flow, next to the boom in tourist or temporal rental, reduces the supply available for habitual residence.
Short -term forecasts do not relieve tension. CaixaBank Research anticipates that prices will advance around 10% in 2025 and 6% in 2026, while visas could reach 140,000 this year and 150,000 next. The studies service asks to “accelerate the construction of affordable housing” to avoid a greater deterioration of accessibility, already affected because prices grow above the available income of households.
They begin to emerge signs of possible overvaluation. The Bank of Spain estimated that, at the end of 2024, the house was between 1.1% and 8.5% above its long -term equilibrium level, and the ECB raised that gap to 10% for the Spanish market. However, analysts explain that the scenario differs from that of the 2000 bubble, since there is no excess supply, residential investment is around 6% of GDP (well below then) and the exposure of the financial system to the brick is lower (promoter credit around 5% of GDP, compared to ratios greater than 40% in the peak of the previous cycle).
The adjustment, for now, is more than quantity of price in the rental market, whose shortage is deriving demand towards the purchase. The employment in the construction holds the activity rebound, with 1.45 million affiliates and a temporality that has fallen from 35% in 2022 to 4.8% in 2025.
With all the above, it must be said that some unknowns are left as if the increase in visas will result in sufficient deliveries; the net effect of tourist rental regulation on the usual residential offer; the path of interest rates; and the scope of policies to increase soil, expedite licenses and climb the affordable house. The available evidence suggests that, without a sustained leap of the offer, the pressure on prices and accessibility will persist.