Spain is aging and the data says so. In this sense, Asturias and Castilla y León are emerging as the epicenter of European aging in the middle of the century. Eurostat projections place both communities at the top of the continent in 2050, with median ages of 59.1 and 57.9 years, respectively. The phenomenon is not isolated, since five of the seven regions that will exceed the average age of 55 years will be Spanish, an indication of the intensity of the demographic change facing the country. The photograph of the European map shows a very aged Cantabrian arc and, in comparison, the autonomous cities of Melilla and Ceuta as the youngest territories, favored by immigration and a more dynamic age structure.
From the beginning, the Eurostat data They are clear. In 2024, Asturias was among the ten regions with the highest average age in the European Union, with 51.4 years, and projections indicate that the jump in the next two and a half decades will be notable. Castilla y León will follow a similar path. Among non-Spanish regions, Sardinia will equal the Castilian-Leonese community, also with 57.9 years, which confirms that aging is a transversal phenomenon in southern Europe.
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The territorial pattern is repeated in Galicia, Cantabria and Extremadura, which will share the top of the European ranking by median age. At the other end of the scale, Melilla will remain the youngest territory in Spain at 36.6 years old and Ceuta will be around 42.2 years old, a contrast that shows the role of internal and international migrations in the demographic configuration.
An increasingly aging population
Beyond the proper names, the European context helps to dimension the challenge. Between 2024 and 2050, the average age will increase in 95% of EU regions, with only a handful of exceptions spread between Germany and France, and specific cases in Greece, Finland and Sweden. The sharpest decline is projected in Chemnitz (eastern Germany), which will go from 52 to 50.2 years, a statistical rarity in a continent that is aging due to the combination of low fertility, increased life expectancy and migratory changes. The next update of regional projections, scheduled for 2026 based on 2025, will allow the pace and intensity of the phenomenon to be recalibrated.
Life expectancy explains a central part of the transformation. In 2023, the Community of Madrid registered the highest life expectancy in all of Europe, 86.1 years for the entire population. If the estimates are met, this threshold will climb to 88.6 years in 2050, with women over 90. At the top of the European table, Navarra will also stand out, with 85 years, and Castilla y León, with 84.9, evidence of the association between aging and longevity.
At the same time, the National Institute of Statistics (INE) confirms this narrowing of the gender gap in life expectancy, since the difference in favor of women was reduced from 6.6 years in 2003 to 5.2 in 2023, and the trend points to a gradual convergence linked to changes in lifestyles, prevention and reduction of relative male mortality.
This increase in life expectancy is clearly reflected in the pension system. In September, 1.72 million people over 85 years of age received some benefit from the public Social Security pension system. Only 32.4% were men, which reveals the excess male mortality and the structural weight of widowhood at these ages. The average pension from the age of 85 is 1,123.92 euros.
The age composition of pensioners illustrates well this “tension” in territories that are older, such as in Asturias, where 18% of recipients are over 85 years old and almost three out of every ten inhabitants receive a pension, a proportion that impacts the regional economy and the provision of services. In Castilla y León, 21% of pensioners are over 85 years old and the average amount is around 991.25 euros.
AIReF warns of an increasingly stressed system
Aging not only puts pressure on pensions. The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) predicts that health spending will increase by 1.2 points of GDP between now and 2050 and that spending on long-term care (associated with chronic diseases and dependency) will increase by 0.6 points (The report can be consulted at this link). Pensions will represent an average of 14.4% of GDP in the period 2022-2050.
On the contrary, demographics will lead to a temporary decline in the weight of education well into the 2030s, before stabilizing around mid-century. The fiscal reading is unequivocal and does not say that a longer-lived population requires strengthening health planning, the care network and prevention policies, in addition to ensuring the financial sustainability of the system.
The labor market will be the other major axis of adjustment. According to INE projections, the population aged 20 to 64 (the working age group) will rise from the current 60.9% to 53.7% in 2051, while the population over 65 could reach a maximum of 30.5% around 2055. This structure will reduce potential growth if it is not compensated with improvements in productivity, greater participation of older workers and sufficient and qualified net migration. For the older communities in the north and west of the peninsula, the added challenge will be to retain and attract the workforce through quality employment, affordable housing and accessible public services that retain residents.
The differential between Spain and Europe responds to a combination of factors such as persistently low birth rates, the departure of young people to urban centers and abroad, and very high longevity in several regions. The concentration of aging in the Cantabrian arc and the west also introduces a territorial bias in the provision of services: more pressure on primary care, hospital care and the socio-health network in municipalities with population dispersion and less density. On the other hand, the lower relative weight of children and young people will reduce educational demand for a few years, although this path will be reversed later due to the effect of the cohorts that advance in the pyramid.
The figures, although robust, are not deterministic. Variations in fertility, migration, life expectancy and productivity can alter the scenario. The Eurostat methodological update scheduled for 2026 and the evolution of migratory flows after recent economic and geopolitical adjustments will be key to refining the photo.
At the policy level, the range of responses ranges from conciliation and housing policy to incentives for the care economy, through professional retraining of senior workers and the deployment of technologies that improve productivity in essential public services.
But what can we get from this data? Well, Spain faces intense and unequal aging that will require sustained decisions for years. Asturias and Castilla y León, called to lead the European ranking in 2050, are the clearest warning of what is coming, which are longer-lived societies that demand more care, public finances that must accommodate growing social spending and labor markets that will find in productivity and the attraction of talent the antidote to maintain the pulse of well-being.