The intensity of events in 2026 is being out of the ordinary, we do not even remember Mr. Maduro and it seems that the world has thrown away the key from his cell, the focus is simply in other places and that page seems to have been written years ago and barely two months have passed…
The speed of events is simply brutal and we close February with the beginning of an attack on Iran with unforeseeable consequences. The market consensus is a conflict of a few weeks and that Iran does not have the military capacity to permanently close the Strait of Hormuz, the true main artery of world economic activity. Let’s see if the consensus is right, the same one that foresaw a quick conflict in Ukraine and we’ve been there for four years…
The month of February itself, before the attack on Iran in the last hours of the month, was marked by the strong debate on the technological disruption of AI, especially in software companies and especially by the strong stir created by the publication of the Citrini Report and the catastrophic consequences for the economy by eliminating a large part of the jobs in the short term due to the advance of AI. Nvidia’s results were exceptional, but since the market does not believe that they can continue to be so exceptional in the future, its price suffered heavy losses.
We focus the month of March on Iran, a quick end is anticipated, although no one really knows what reserves of missiles and drones Iran maintains, they are estimates therefore we prefer to be cautious in this regard. If we know that Mr. Trump is in a hurry, if 60 days pass, he will have to ask Congress for an extension and mainly, the high electoral cost for the mid-term elections in November, which he would have to pay if he had to put in ground troops and the conflict was extended in time. Hormuz is the key.