In the midst of a tariff war and political tensions, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) published its economic projections by 2025 and 2026. In general, the OECD foresees a deceleration of world economic growth, going from an increase in global real GDP of 3.2% in 2024 to 3.0% in 2026. Of the largest economies in the world analyzed by the OECD report It positions as the economy with the highest growth, being the only one that will exceed 6% in 2025 and 2026. Indonesia and Argentina are followed, both surrounding 5% growth in both years.
Among drastic changes in international policies by the administration of Donald Trump, the US economy foresees an important slowdown, from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.6% in 2026. Spain also awaits a drop in GDP growth of 3.2% in 2024 to 2.1% in 2026, still placing itself above the average in the eurozone that estimates a growth of 1.2% in 2026.
The only country of those considered that would expect a negative growth in its real GDP is Mexico. As shown in our graph, the Mexican economy will decrease 1.3% this year, and then recover a little in 2026 but still reporting red number with a decrease of 0.6%. According to the OECD, these projections take into consideration the 25% increase to tariffs in Mexican imports to the United States from April. If Trump’s threats were not fulfilled, the projections could change, but with an uncertain future considering the volatility of the decisions taken by the current US executive.