We have already consumed the first half of the year, I do not remember an intensity of events, news, so intense for many years and, nevertheless, we return to the starting point, with bags in historical maximums. If we had isolated a person for six months and when he left he saw the final profitability of this time, he would think it has been a period bored.
It gives the feeling that years have passed, but we started the year with the earthquake in the technological caused by the surprising emergence of Deepseekwhich promised us a cheap AI for all, which caused strong falls in the 7 magnificent. We have alternated with a very aggressive negotiation of the Mr. Trump During this time, alternated with a dangerous Iran-Israel conflict where the US was directly involved, fear of closing Ormuz And an abrupt increase in the price of oil that could cloud the good evolution of inflation made markets very nervous.
The minimum market was marked in April, in the end the new Trump administration had to back down and give a 90 -day extension for the entry into force of the new tariffs. Since then a continuum “TAKE AND DACA ” that has led to the term “Taco Trade“We commented last month. The market has discounted that Trump will not let the worst possible scenario happen and assumes that they will be reached to different commercial agreements.
We focus this comment talking about the negative protagonist of this semester, the North American dollar. Why has this massive output of the USD? During these first six months its status of reserve currency has been questioned, the irruption of Mr. Trump, as well as the latest conflicts has separated the West from countries such as China and Russia and the BRICS in general, many of these countries have begun to question themselves to maintain the dollar as a strong currency of their reservations, which has made them sold dollars to diversify in other assets or currencies. The country’s indebtedness level in continuous growth has reduced the demand for dollars in dollars, being considered of worse quality, increasing the demand for gold mainly. As a summary, the dollar is being questioned as a reserve currency and there has been a strong exit flow to other alternative assets and other geographical areas. Frankly, we understand that to accumulate reservations, central banks are decant for gold, but the dollar will continue to be the main reference currency and oil (among many others Commodities) You will continue to quote in dollars. The big question to be asked is not if the dollar is going to lose its hegemonic role, but what serious alternative exists to the dollar? … Chinese renminbi? Russian ruble?, Euro? Gold? Bitcoin? BRICS countries do not seem very appropriate, I do not imagine a western central bank using them as a value reserve. Gold and Bitcoin but do not have enough agility to be global exchange currency, thestablecoins? They can be an alternative, but you will buy dollars as a reservation, therefore, buy Stablecoins It will be bought dollars. (The great rabbit in the Trump administration hat to finance its debt, the Genius Act that regulates the emissions in Stablecoins).
The euro? Europe has the opportunity to be someone, as long as it focuses on following the Draghi report and bet on greater flexibility and growth, but must face structural measures that will depend on the EU really becoming aware of the opportunity. In this sense, the euro can have the opportunity here at 2030 to share gallons with the dollar, but in no case do we believe it can replace it.
It is true that this year, the portfolios with bias ee. UU. They have suffered more, but on the other hand we believe that this will be compensated in the coming months, the American companies will be favored by a cheaper dollar to be more competitive and that it can favor their results and its attractive Finish this long and aggressive tariff negotiation process.
Jordi Martret
NORZ PATRIMONIA INVESTMENT DIRECTOR