Experts predict that AI will affect about 40% of jobs worldwide and 60% of professions. Some of them will disappear altogether, with older workers and those in the most developed economies particularly vulnerable to job loss.
According to a study by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), AI will have a huge impact, especially on jobs requiring high skills and in highly developed economies, and will affect 60% of jobs that will disappear. The reason for their disappearance will be the emergence of new jobs “oriented at cognitive tasks”. At the same time, highly developed economies will benefit more from AI than less developed and emerging economies.
Deepening inequality
IMF experts also believe that half of the jobs that are changing thanks to the introduction of artificial intelligence have a chance to achieve higher productivity. Unfortunately, this will happen at the cost of further loss of jobs that are currently held by humans. There is already pressure to reduce wages and limit jobs in many professions. Some of them may even disappear completely. The impact of artificial intelligence on wages will depend primarily on the level to which it can improve the work of high-income employees. The IMF report states that AI may deepen “income and wealth inequality within countries.”
“In most scenarios, it is likely to worsen overall inequality, a worrying trend that policymakers need to actively address to prevent technology from further fuelling social tensions,” warns Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the IMF.
In this situation, according to the IMF: “It is crucial for countries to create comprehensive social safety nets and offer retraining programs for workers. In emerging markets, 40 percent of jobs will be exposed to AI, while in developing countries the figure will be 26 percent. This means that less developed economies are less exposed to the risks of AI. However, they are also less prepared to benefit from AI because they lack the infrastructure and skilled labor, which deepens the digital divide and income disparities between countries,” the report reads.
AI is expensive
In this context, it is also worth noting the results of the work of researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), who undertook to check whether artificial intelligence is more profitable for employers than hiring employees. For this purpose, the researchers examined 800 professions. The conclusion from this study may be comforting for many, because the idea of mass replacement of employees by artificial intelligence is unfeasible due to the high costs associated with it. The study cited the example of a baker who must ensure, among other things, the use of the right (and in the right proportion) baking ingredients to maintain high product quality. It turns out that the current capabilities of AI in terms of quality control would not be enough to “develop, implement and maintain a computer vision system” that would be profitable for the employer. Currently, only 23% of jobs can be automated at a cost that will be profitable for business owners. Therefore, the broader entry of AI into the industry will be much slower than previously anticipated.