Today we want to put some order in a market marked by inflation, interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty. To find out how all this can affect investors and how to position a portfolio, we spoke with Jordi Castany, investment analyst at NORZ Patrimonia.
The ECB has just raised rates again due to the rise in inflation and now all eyes are on the Fed. Do you think we are entering a scenario of high rates again for longer? What should an investor change in their portfolio in this new context?
We are faced with a scenario higher for longerthat is, higher interest rates for a longer period of time. However, this does not necessarily mean a storm of rates like the one experienced in 2022. The interventions by central bankers They suggest that they will be less complacent with inflation and with the market in the face of a more volatile environment from a geopolitical point of view and while the supply shock lasts. Increases in interest rates do not generate more oil supply, but they do prevent price increases from being passed on to salaries and services, preventing a greater evil in the economy.
Oil once again exceeds $100 due to geopolitical tensions. To what extent do you think this new energy shock changes the outlook for the stock markets? Which sectors could benefit and which could be harmed?
The key is not so much the current price of a barrel, but how long these levels will last. A barrel above $100 acts practically as a tax on economies, especially the most energy-dependent ones like Europe.
Reducing the market reading to “energy wins and everything else loses” would be an incorrect simplification. Yes ok oil companies and refining companies have had extraordinary performance during the first half of 2026, real assets gain prominence: companies with collateralization in physical assets that are difficult to replicate that provide decorrelation compared to traditional variable and fixed income, as well as coverage against inflation. All of this without forgetting artificial intelligencewhich has a transversal impact on the entire economy.
In contrast, the most vulnerable sectors are those energy intensive with narrow marginssuch as airlines, heavy industries or consumer discretionary.
After the strong increases linked to artificial intelligence, more doubts are beginning to arise about the valuations of the technology sector. Is AI still an investment opportunity or do you think the risk of paying too much is starting to outweigh the growth potential?
Artificial intelligence continues to be the great engine of growth in the markets. Its impact is not limited to development companies, but to an entire sector ecosystem that increases productivity, improves margins and generates greater returns for investors.
Although the valuations may seem demanding in price, they are reasonable when considering the long-term growth projections. Although some leaders in the sector have suggested slowing down the development of new models, investment in data computing and digital infrastructures does not stop. The specific corrections of the market represent attractive entry windows to build position.
Europe has been in the shadow of Wall Street for years, but now we find European banks, industrial, defense, infrastructure and other companies with good fundamentals. Do you think the time has come to increase Europe’s weight vis-à-vis the United States? Where are you seeing the most value?
The allocation between the United States and Europe should not be seen as a binary decision. A cheap asset without growth catalysts can remain undervalued for a long period of time. Europe has clear drivers: greater spending on infrastructure and defense, industrial momentum and a very favorable banking sector, although its business fabric remains highly sensitive to geopolitical and energy events.
Despite these riskson the European continent leading multinationals are listed on a global scale such as Prysmian, ASML, Schneider or Vinciwhich add solid value to any portfolio.
With inflation, geopolitical tensions and stock markets with demanding valuations, how would you build a balanced portfolio today for an investor who wants to protect their assets but not be left out of opportunities? What role should fixed income, the stock market, gold, real assets and liquidity play?
Design a portfolio conditioned to a single macroeconomic scenario (whether growth, inflation or recession) It’s a mistake. Given the dispersion of current scenarios, the structure must be resilient in multiple environments.
Fixed income once again plays a relevant role thanks to the rebound in IRRs, while equities remain the engine of growth and coverage against long-term inflation. For their part, the real assets hhave gone from being a tactical bet to a key structural component. In the fund that we advise AMMUS GESTIO SICAV, we combine infrastructure, basic materials, real estate and agribusiness; companies with the capacity to pass costs on to the consumer and backed by tangible assets. Finally, maintain some strategic liquidity It will allow you to take advantage of market corrections and capture opportunities at more attractive prices.