The State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) has warned the entire population of the imminent arrival of the new storm, Leonardo, which will significantly affect the southern third, specifically Andalusia and western areas. To face this scenario, the Andalusian Government has taken a drastic but necessary measure: the suspension of all face-to-face classes for this Wednesday, February 4 in almost the entire autonomous community.
The routine will change completely this Wednesday for those families with children of school age, university age, or dependent on day centers. The weather front arrives with a worrying forecast, so much so that the authorities have preferred not to take risks on the roads or in educational centers. However, there is a single exception on the Andalusian map that is spared, for the moment, from classroom closures: Almería.
Why is Almería spared from closure?
While the rest of the community protects itself from water, Almería maintains school activity. As explained by the president of the Board, Juanma Moreno, the decision is based on technical data: in this province “heavy rainfall is not expected, nor are there any winds that could pose an imminent danger” to the safety of schoolchildren.
However, this does not mean that in Almería the forecast is a sunny and beach day. In fact, the AEMET maintains active orange warnings for coastal phenomena in the Poniente and Levante of Almería, with waves that can reach 4 or 5 meters and winds of force 8. But the risk of flooding, which is the key factor for canceling classes, is much lower there than in its neighboring provinces. Of course, the situation is “under evaluation” and could change if the storm decides to make an unexpected turn.
The “ground zero” of the storm: Cádiz and Málaga
The real concern of meteorologists is focused on the western third. The AEMET has painted red, the maximum alert level, very specific areas where the rain promises to be torrential. These are the Sierra de Grazalema in Cádiz and the Serranía de Ronda in Málaga.
The data managed by the Agency invites caution. They indicate an “extraordinary danger” with accumulated rain that could exceed 150 liters per square meter in just 12 hours. But taking into account the total accumulated for the entire day, the figure could shoot above 200 liters.
“Cumulative accumulations greater than 200mm can be reached in 24 hours,” the official warnings for these areas literally warn. With the soil already soaked from the rains of recent days, the earth’s absorption capacity is minimal, which triggers the risk of flash floods in streams and rivers.
Widespread Orange Notice and ES-Alert Message
Beyond the red zone, the rain will be intense and persistent in much of Andalusia. The orange warnings (“important danger”) are activated in the Cádiz countryside, the Strait, the Genil Basin in Granada, the area of Nevada and Alpujarras, Cazorla and Segura in Jaén, and the Costa del Sol and Guadalhorce.
In these areas it is expected to collect between 90 and 100 liters in 12 hours. Given this scenario, Civil Protection will send a mass message to mobile phones (ES-Alert system) at 8:00 p.m. this Tuesday to notify the population who are in the highest risk areas. The message is clear: restrict mobility to the maximum. “Prudence, follow the advice given in 112, and common sense,” Moreno insisted.
Hurricane winds of up to 100 km/h
The storm Leonardo, however, does not come alone, it brings with it a gale. Although the rain is what cancels classes due to the risk of floods, the wind will be a very dangerous factor this Wednesday. In the Strait area and the Cadiz coast, gusts can reach 100 km/h.
In the rest of the warned areas, such as the Sevillian countryside, the Sierra Sur of Seville or the Axarquía in Malaga, the wind will blow with gusts of 70 to 80 km/h. It is a day to avoid walking under ledges, large trees and structures that could fall.
What is the forecast for Thursday?
For now, the suspension of classes affects only Wednesday, February 4. The Andalusian Government will “re-evaluate the situation” tomorrow to decide whether to extend the measure or lift it. Everything will depend on how Leonardo evolves and the damage he leaves in his wake in these critical 24 hours.
What is certain is that we are facing one of the most adverse episodes of the winter. It is recommended to stay at home, whenever possible. And in the case of Almería, pay attention to official updates, because the weather forecast can evolve at any time.