FiveThirtyEight probability model rates chances of Newcastle beating Brighton and finding success this season

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Saturday’s match against Brighton.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this coming weekend, including Newcastle United against Brighton.

Their computer model gives Brighton a 49% chance of a win, it is 26% for a draw and a 25% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

We can also see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of success for Newcastle United over the course of the season.

Their prediction system gives Newcastle United an 8% chance of finishing top four, whilst less than a 1% possibility / probability of actually winning the title.

As for relegation, that is slightly more likely according to the forecasts, the computer model currently makes NUFC a 10% chance of going down.

At the top they rate Man City a 54% chance of retaining the title, with Liverpool 23% and Chelsea 11%, then Tottenham 6% and Arsenal 3%.

As for relegation, the computer model has Nottingham Forest most likely (55%) to be relegated, with then Bournemouth a 36% shot, Fulham a 35% one. Then follows Southampton (32%)  and Everton (26%) as the fourth and fifth most likely to go down.

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